Mojanoski: Dormant extremist networks are a risk for the entire Western Balkans, Albania and Kosovo most vulnerable

University professor from Skopje, Cane Mojanoski, warned for Kosovo Online that “dormant” extremist networks still exist in the Western Balkans and could be activated in the context of conflicts in the Middle East. He emphasized that territories with military bases and a NATO presence, such as Albania and Kosovo, are particularly vulnerable, and that the region must strengthen mutual cooperation and information exchange to reduce the risk of potential provocations.

Mojanoski states that every military conflict, especially in the Middle East, always raises the question of the activity of various extremist groups operating from positions of extreme radicalism.

“This indicates that the process is in a state of hibernation, or that certain conflict events stimulate its emergence. Not long ago, we witnessed various groups that appeared during the migrant crisis, when people from those regions were arriving in European countries. At the same time, military conflicts were taking place in the Middle East, which influenced the situation in one way or another. This conflict is absolutely no different from previous ones, and the structures that encourage or support radical groups are still present, and their activation can be expected as a result of social, political, and other conditions in the countries of the Western Balkans and Europe,” the professor said.

He warns that such phenomena are possible and that their activity is driven by the interests of the conflicting sides.

“If we seek an explicit answer – such phenomena are possible. Whether they are hidden or dormant – I do not know how to classify them, but their activity is always driven by the interests of the conflicting sides and the need to defocus the public or increase fear and resistance toward certain structures, countries, and military powers,” he said.

Asked about the existence of inactive extremist networks in the region, Mojanoski says it cannot be stated with certainty that they have been eradicated.

“They are probably weakened, but they can receive new incentives and strengthening, both in personnel and financially. If you are a military analyst or strategist, it is natural to be concerned and to expect that such a phenomenon is possible. Their emergence does not depend only on our expectations, but on the real interests of the actors in military conflicts, those who, alongside the conflict, seek to achieve their goals. Once established, such networks are very difficult to permanently eradicate, and it is possible that dormant or hibernating networks in the Western Balkans and beyond could become active again,” he emphasized.

Speaking about the vulnerability of countries in the region, the professor highlights key factors – such as NATO bases.

“All countries that host military structures or bases, especially American ones, or that are part of NATO, are vulnerable. In this context, Albania has long had strained or severed diplomatic relations with Iran, is a NATO member, and has military facilities that may be of interest. Kosovo also has a US military base. If the criterion for risk is the presence of military bases or positions along migration routes, all countries of the Western Balkans are potentially exposed,” he warned.

He adds that who will be more or less at risk depends on the assessment of forces intending to provoke incidents in order to divert attention or destabilize.

“In this context, the countries of the region must increase mutual cooperation, exchange of information, and efforts to reduce the likelihood of extremist and other provocations in the coming period,” Mojanoski concluded.