Djurovic: Even in the case of escalation in the Middle East, there will be no new mass exodus through the Balkans

Although there are still no mass border crossings, attacks on infrastructure, the rise in internally displaced persons, and pressure in the Middle East region indicate a possible further deterioration of the situation, warns Rados Djurovic, Director of the Center for the Protection and Assistance of Asylum Seekers. However, he told Kosovo Online that he does not expect a scenario of a mass refugee wave through the Balkans like in 2015.

In the context of the conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel, migration is increasingly being mentioned as one of the key consequences, immediately after energy. However, according to Djurovic, it is still too early for reliable assessments.

“This is only the initial phase of military operations, so it is difficult to make long-term predictions. What is certain is that we are seeing strikes on civilian infrastructure. In the past two weeks, there have been attacks on oil and gas depots, storage facilities, industrial areas around major cities, ports – everything that should ensure the uninterrupted flow of goods, food, the functioning of society, electricity, and fuel for vehicles,” Djurovic said, adding that there have not yet been attacks on water supply infrastructure, which, as he notes, would further worsen living conditions for the population.

He points out that there are currently clear signs of displacement within Iran.

“More than three and a half million people are internally displaced in Iran and are leaving major cities. They are gravitating toward the north of the country, toward the Caspian region. Not only in Iran, but also in the Middle East and in Lebanon, the situation is significantly worsening. More than 800,000 people have fled. Israel is clearly planning to take control of part of southern Lebanon’s territory, and there is also migration pressure toward Syria, which, having been affected by war, is not in a position to provide protection to a large number of people if they move there,” he said.

However, despite negative indicators, he stresses that for now there are no significant cross border outflows, especially not from Iran.

“When we talk about people leaving Iran, it is for now a controlled outflow. The Iranian state generally does not allow people to leave, except those with dual citizenship. Likewise, neighboring countries are quite rigid and are trying to prevent any uncontrolled outflow of people. Among other things, Turkish controls are also present, queues are forming at the border, but nothing dramatic,” Djurovic said.

Speaking about possible scenarios, he warns that further escalation could have long-term consequences.

“Will there be refugee flows? It is possible if there is further escalation of the war and strikes, primarily on civilian infrastructure, or the disintegration of the state and its institutions. In such a scenario, the Middle East could become a generator of refugee flows over a long period, even up to a decade. It should be emphasized that in the western part of Iran alone at least 12 million people live and gravitate toward that area,” our interlocutor stressed.

He particularly highlights the measures taken by Turkey against uncontrolled migration.

“Turkey has concrete barriers stretching more than 300 kilometers along its border with Iran, more than 200 surveillance towers, and according to their statements, they are ready to react preventively in order to contain uncontrolled migration. They also have a plan to receive more than 100,000 people, and that plan includes controlled movement, meaning that people would not be able to move freely across all of Turkey,” Djurovic said.

On the other hand, he adds, the European Union also supports such efforts by Turkey.

“The European Union has been financially supporting Turkey since 2015, so the EU’s focus is that Turkey, in some unexpected scenario, takes on the burden of refugee flows so that they do not spill over further. However, even if Turkish authorities supported further migration due to their inability to manage it, the question is how Greece and Bulgaria would respond, as they have been intensively preparing over the past ten years to physically stop migration,” said the Director of the Center for the Protection and Assistance of Asylum Seekers.

According to him, even in the event of a worsening situation, the Balkans would not be at the forefront.

“The Balkans would feel the secondary consequences of such movements of people, not in the scenario of an exodus like the one when tens of thousands of people crossed our borders daily, but rather through smuggling networks and a continuous movement of people toward Western Europe,” he said.

Djurovic recalls that the European Union today has more experience in managing crises.

“Europe has learned from the refugee crises since 2015, but the war in Ukraine also tested European countries in many ways, when more than eight million people were received within a period of one month. The principle of solidarity was respected there. Even today, around four million people remain in EU countries and reception and integration systems are functioning extremely well,” he noted.

He added that this has shown that when countries want to accept refugees or seriously address the issue, they have the capacity and can respond in such situations.

However, he also warns about the misuse of migration for political purposes.

“We have had situations where people were used as a kind of weapon in conflicts. In 2022, Turkish authorities tried, by pushing people toward the border with Greece and Bulgaria, to provoke a reaction and impose additional political pressure. However, border controls of Greece, Bulgaria, and other countries stopped those waves. In that sense, the EU has considerable experience and is working both financially and strategically on this issue and will do everything possible to prevent the 2015 scenario from repeating,” Djurovic said.

When it comes to Serbia, he assesses that capacities are not sufficient for larger crises.

“I would not say that Serbia is prepared for any large influx of people. Out of 19 camps that once operated, today we officially have six open, of which four are operational, while the others are in standby. There is a response plan, however, we only have temporary accommodation, which could handle only a short stay of people and their quick transit through our territory,” he said.

However, he warns that this would now be difficult, pointing to changes at Serbia’s borders.

“At Serbia’s borders with the EU, fences and barriers are also being set up and the fight against migration is intensifying, so an outflow like in 2015, toward Croatia and Hungary, is almost impossible,” he said.

He sees an additional problem in regional cooperation.

“In the south, we have North Macedonia, the territory of Kosovo, Bulgaria, and Albania, where it is difficult to expect that readmission would function and that there would be solidarity. So for us, in the worst case scenario, the situation would be very serious if people arrived in larger numbers and remained here. However, all indicators suggest that, if there is an influx, people would arrive gradually and quickly move on with the help of smugglers, rather than in large waves over a short period of time,” Djurovic concluded.