First the CSM to be established, then the Franco-German proposal talks

The meeting between the Serbian side and Pristina, which was called by the European representative for foreign policy for Monday, November 21 in Brussels, is expected to end the weeks-long fever that is shaking the European southeast. In addition, it is supposed to ensure the implementation of two demands that the USA and the EU put before Albin Kurti: to postpone the application of vehicle re-registration and start the creation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities.

Namely, that is the last date, after which Pristina announced the application of punitive measures against those who do not re-register their vehicles, namely against Serbs from Kosovo. The license plates have caused tensions between Pristina and Belgrade in the past period, and the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, assessed that this had been the "most serious crisis since 2013" and that an agreement must be reached before November 21 which apparently failed to happen.

The situation became even more complicated after the members of the Serbian community in the north left the Kosovo institutions, the policemen left their units, the mayors resigned, and the deputies left the Kosovo Parliament, opposing the decision of the Government of Kosovo on the re-registration of vehicles with KM (Kosovska Mitrovica) plates, issued by the authorities of Serbia and this way Serbia essentially suspended the application of the Brussels Agreement, signed 9 years ago by then Prime Minister Ivica Dacic.

Before this conversation, the American representatives, Gabriel Escobar and Derek Chollet, joined in, and each in their own way, repeated what needs to be done in order to end the current crisis and prevent its further escalation. Escobar requested that the parties "redouble their obligations towards the dialogue, including the implementation of already signed agreements, which means the beginning of negotiations on the establishment of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities", while Chollet requested the same, only in an exhaustive manner and as a request that should not be discussed.

It seems that everyone is convinced that there will be no problems here. American envoy Gabriel Escobar stated that he has no intention of traveling anywhere, which means that he does not feel any signs of alarm and urgency in this case. Borrell shows the same kind of certainty, since he called a meeting for the last day, before the issue of license plates would enter a new, more radical stage. However, it can be a double-edged sword. No one can be sure that the time crunch will provide the expected solution. German officials also pointed out this danger, even though Germany is practically the initiator and driving force of all actions related to Kosovo. The new German ambassador in Belgrade, Anke Konrad, warned, therefore, that a regular dialogue must produce a solution, "but not that we only have high-level meetings when an issue remains without an agreement and escalation is looming due to the expiration of a deadline, as now , but for it to be a process in which such issues would be resolved in a timely manner''.

Borrell's hesitation can have a double reason. The first is that the EU would not want to directly confront one of the participating countries pending declarations and negotiations on the German-Franco proposal, and the second was the idea to move the application of the provisions on the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities from Brussels to a new agreement. Whoever's idea it was, it was clearly wrong. It thus legalized and accepted non-fulfillment of the agreement as part of the negotiation process, thus discrediting the new proposal from the very beginning and making it impossible even before it even started.

This assumption about the end of the crisis seems to be the only possible reasonable way out of the conflict situation, which, in addition, does not have an atmosphere suitable for a meeting and a fruitful conversation between the two parties. Kurti can make this happen. He played until the end, as long as he could. With this, he showed that he would take identical or similar steps next time, if it seems to him that the moment is favorable for the pursuit of his primary goal, rounding off and recognition of Kosovo's statehood to the greatest extent possible.

So, if everything goes as expected, from tomorrow everything should return to the previous state, with the fact that Prishtina should "start" the creation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities. Vocabulary is important. European and American representatives do not accidentally talk about the "beginning" of the creation of this association. It seems that according to their understanding, the "beginning" should be enough to continue the talks on the Franco-German proposal on the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina at the same time. In that case, two parallel processes would last - the process of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities establishment and the negotiation process on the Franco-German proposal.

Since in one variant the idea that the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities should be "displaced" from the Brussels Agreement and transferred as a topic of discussion of the Franco-German document, only the "beginning" of the process of creating the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities will probably not be enough this time for the Serbian side to be satisfied. Much more will be needed, that is, that the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities be formed first, and that only after that the discussions on the Franco-German paper begin.

Neither Pristina nor Belgrade have much room to avoid or reject talks about the Franco-German proposal. Albin Kurti is under strong internal attacks for neglecting and ignoring the recommendations of the "allies" - the USA and the EU, which demand the postponement of the implementation of the decision on the license plates and the creation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities.

It can be assumed that the Kosovo side is dissatisfied with the fact that there is no guarantee of recognition by the Serbian side, which was the basic demand of all Kurti's governments: no negotiations without recognition, that is, possible negotiations will only refer to the recognition of Serbia. Another important objection is the omission of provisions on Kosovo as a member of the UN.

The Serbian side has already said that the document is based on the fact that Kosovo is already independent. This means that it does not invoke or rely on Security Council resolution 1244. No one even mentions it in this context. Either it is understood that it will be automatically dismissed or that the normalization agreement will have no effect on it. In any case, it seems pretty clear that the intention is to silently avoid it.

This plan for the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina began to live its political life not only because both sides were familiar with it, but also because both sides, as announced, responded to it. Therefore, it can be considered that the introduction to its consideration has begun, without guarantees, that is, as things stand now, with very few guarantees that it will go beyond this stage.

In the event that Pristina only stays at the beginning of the process of establishment the CSM, it would basically mean just another delay and the creation of conditions for new crises that will be increasingly difficult to solve and in which there will be less and less room for maneuver. That is why it is essential that Jozep Borrell tomorrow be completely clear and precise about what is being agreed upon and what has been agreed: is it just a "beginning" or is it about the formation of the CSM and what are the time frames for the fulfillment of this agreement?

The conditions for the creation of the CSM obviously exist and preparations have been made on the international level. In that case, Gabriel Escobar would not have explicitly said only two days before the meeting in Brussels, precisely to Tanjug: "The Kosovo Parliament has ratified the Brussels Agreement, and the Constitutional Court of Kosovo has decided that it is necessary to establish the CSM, which makes its formation a binding legal obligation for Kosovo." The German ambassador is also now explicit that the Brussels Agreement must be implemented, i.e. the CSM must be created. And not only that. Germany has prepared an expert document on how the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities should look like.

Although the German Minister for European Affairs and Climate Affairs, Anna Luehrmann, during her visit to Belgrade and Pristina at the end of October, stated that the document prepared by the experts of the Social Democratic Foundation "Friedrich Ebert" has nothing to do with the German government, everyone participating in the current talks is familiar with. Germany, therefore, not only has all the instruments to ensure the formation of the CSM, but also a special responsibility to do so.

If everything goes as planned, the formation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities should begin in Pristina on November 21, after which the Franco-German proposal can be discussed. Only when the dynamics of the creation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities is known, the pace at which the talks on the Franco-German paper will be conducted become clearer. Different outcomes would be a very risky move away from the conditions in which it is still possible to preserve a constructive afmosphere for dialogue.

By: Dragan Bisenic, a journalist