Spahiu: The Community will be established when the flag is raised at the Representative office of Kosovo in Belgrade

In an interview with Kosovo Online, analyst Nexhmedin Spahiu says that he thinks that Albin Kurti will form the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities because the Americans will easily replace him if he does not do that. Also, he indicates that Kurti's condition is that the Community enters into force at the moment when the diplomatic mission of Kosovo is opened in Belgrade.

Spahiu believes that "there is a possibility that the US will incite a conflict if the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian political class are not consistent and do not implement the agreements reached in the dialogue".

In January, you warned of the danger of war if there is no agreement in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina by March. Some sort of agreement has been reached, but you still believe that war is possible and that America could instigate it. On what basis do you conclude that?

That is my analysis based on all the steps taken, interests, hints... Logically, the US wants to sort out the situation in the Western Balkans and turn Serbia's policy towards the West. If this is not achieved through diplomacy and peaceful means, it will be done differently, through the use of force. In that case, a reason will have to be found, in Kosovo or somewhere else.

A few days ago, the US Ambassador in Belgrade, Christopher Hill, spoke about finding diplomatic solutions to seemingly intractable problems, and he also sent his condolences to the families of those killed in the NATO bombing. What would be America's interest today if it gave up its diplomatic efforts and provoked an armed conflict into which it would involve Serbia?

Because it is difficult in Serbia to change the political course that has been going on for 179 years, since Nacertanije (Program for Foreign and National policy of Serbia) written by Ilija Garasanin, from 1844, in which it was stated that Serbia's policy should be a balancing act between the West and Russia. Serbia has followed this policy most of the time until today. President Vucic says that he wants peace and that he will implement the agreements reached, but the question is whether he will be consistent until the end. I am not saying that there will be 100 percent war, but that it is a possibility if President Vucic and the Serbian political class want to play the West, or if there is a coup in Serbia to overthrow Vucic precisely because of the agreement with the West and Kosovo.

How would there be a war, on which territory?

It can be in Kosovo or let's say in Bosnia because that is where the most fragile situation is, and Serbia would be drawn into it. The international public would also prepare for that. But I am not saying that Vucic will definitely play the West, this is only a theoretical possibility.

The latest agreement from Brussels highlights the obligation to implement previously reached agreements, one of which is the CSM. Do you think that Albin Kurti will form the CSM?

I think he will. If he does not do it, then the Americans will easily change the government in Pristina and appoint someone else to do it. Because the Americans in Kosovo can change the government whenever they want, which is not the case in Serbia? In order to change the government there, there must be a war.

Should we expect Kurti to form the CSM by the end of the year?

Kurti stipulates that the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities comes into force at the moment when the permanent diplomatic representation of Kosovo opens in Belgrade, where the flag of Kosovo will fly, as well as the representation of Serbia in Kosovo because this is important for Kosovo as a form of recognition. There is no logic in Serbia having a diplomatic representation in Novi Sad or Nis.

Do you think it is realistic for Serbia to agree to that? And that it is still waiting for the formation of the CSM.

The Community will be agreed upon before that, and the law that the Kosovo Parliament will adopt on the Community will state that it will enter into force on the same day when the diplomatic missions in Belgrade and Pristina will be opened. Kurti will probably come out with a proposal regarding the Community that Vucic will not like, and Vuvićv's proposal will be far from Kurti's, so I expect that the international mediators will propose some of their own proposals for the Community Statute, which will be in the form of “take it or leave it”. If Kurti does not accept it, then there will be a change of government in Pristina, if Vucic does not accept it, then it will be difficult for Serbia. The Franco-German proposal avoided the word recognition, but it is implied in some items, most specifically in the one about the opening of representative offices. Their opening and the formation of the Community are barter for each other.

The obligation of Pristina to form the CSM has existed for ten years. When it was talked about arrangements, it was nowhere conditioned by what Kurti is looking for now...

It didn't, because there was an expectation that some other things would apply, and the 2015 deal on the Community was contradictory. He gave the powers to the Community and in the long run the agreement had to be confirmed by the Constitutional Court of Kosovo. That court said it was unconstitutional and it remained to be renegotiated. Now it will either be necessary to remove that item about the Constitutional Court or to rearrange the articles that the court has declared as controversial.

Why does Pristina mind when it says Community of Serb-majority Municipalities and not Community of Municipalities with a Serbian majority?

These are not municipalities of the Republic of Serbia, but of the Republic of Kosovo. They have a Serbian majority, just as there are municipalities with a Turkish majority in Kosovo. Bosniaks are also asking for the formation of two municipalities with a Bosniak majority, but they are still Kosovo municipalities where Kosovo laws are in force. There is a big difference when you say a Serbian municipality, it can mean Pozarevac or Subotica, which is not majority Serbian but is a Serbian municipality because it is within the Republic of Serbia.

If there were to be new elections as a consequence of Kurti not implementing the agreements from the dialogue, which of the opposition parties would meet the standards of the West since the opposition is a harsh critic of the Ohrid agreement?

AAK, PDK, and LDK are in opposition, and it would be a coalition of these parties. It is important for the West to implement agreements, and Kurti is the toughest nut to crack if we talk about confronting foreigners. The latter would give way more easily