Are Pristina's latest moves a prelude to a difficult autumn for the Serbs in Kosovo?

Pristina's moves, which followed the direct threat of Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti that the Serbs would "suffer and pay", sent as soon as he got up from the Brussels table where he rejected the EU's proposal on normalization, are the announcement of another difficult autumn for the Serbs in Kosovo, according to the interlocutors of Kosovo Online.

They interpret the messages of the Minister of Interior Xhelal Svecla that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will be arrested if he comes to Gracanica "without the permission of Pristina institutions", as well as yesterday's arrest of three Serbs, as the beginning of the realization of Kurti's threats, they warn that he will not stop and that now, the international community is on the move.

And President Vucic said from the General Assembly of the United Nations in New York, that "Kurti started ethnic cleansing of the Serbs and that the international community must react", and that he was afraid that they had not done it after Kurti's messages that the Serbs "will suffer and pay".

Because of everything that happened in the previous days, the Serbs in Kosovo openly fear that another uncertain autumn awaits them, this time perhaps more uncertain than ever.

The executive director of the NGO Center for the Representation of Democratic Culture from North Mitrovica, Dusan Radakovic, tells Kosovo Online that he is afraid of mass arrests of the Serbs and causing incidents that could seriously escalate, such as the break-in of the office of the Ministry of Justice in North Mitrovica.

"I'm afraid that after the failed negotiations, there will be more reactions from Kurti and Pristina, the opening of new hot spots. I'm afraid of raids on the premises of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija, next to the former fire station, or even perhaps more mass arrests. It's not important here at all the production of drugs and weapons, here we are looking for some bigger incident that will escalate into an even bigger crisis, problem, and even bigger threats and pressure on the Serbian community, above all on the Serbs living in the north of Kosovo," Radakovic says.

Radakovic says that every autumn in the north of Kosovo is "hot" and points out once again that he is afraid of the arrests, or of initiating a major incident, which can directly escalate into an even bigger conflict or perhaps a repetition of the situation from May 26 or 29, when the protests by the Serbs from the north started, against the imposition of illegitimately elected Albanian mayors and the occupation of municipal buildings by members of the Kosovo Police.

Analyst from the Center for Social Stability Srdjan Graovac warns that Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti is again applying the same strategy in order to prevent the reaching of an agreement in the dialogue and the formation of the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities, namely mass arrests, causing disorder and raising tensions that would provoke a reaction from Belgrade and the Serbs in Kosovo.

Graovac indicates for Kosovo Online that after everything that happened after the failure of last week's round of dialogue in Brussels, where the Pristina side rejected the EU's proposal on normalization, it is clear that Kurti will follow the path of new escalation.

And at the previous negotiations, in May, it also stopped with the CSM, which Kurti refused to form even then. And after that, Kurti's reaction was the same as it is now. Mass arrests of the Serbs began, causing riots with the clear aim to stop every discussion about the CSM and to shift everything to a new topic - de-escalation," Graovac says.

He adds that Kurti is aware that if there are talks in Brussels, if the negotiations go their way, then they will concern the CSM first of all.

Graovac says that the messages of the Minister of Interior Xhelal Svecla that the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, will be arrested if he comes to Kosovo without notice and permission from the Pristina institutions, were given with the aim of raising tensions and provoking a reaction from both Belgrade and the Serbs in Kosovo.

"What they want the most is a sharp reaction from Belgrade, a sharp reaction from the Serbs, which would lead to an even greater deterioration of the situation in the north, the security situation, which would lead to conflict, if possible, to war. This is what Kurti wishes for, because in those circumstances there will be no discussion of the CSM. In those circumstances, only de-escalation will be discussed. Kurti hopes that in those circumstances there could be a direct opposition of Belgrade and Serbia to the NATO pact. That is somewhere his key wish, and he doesn't hide it," Graovac says.

He has no doubt that Kurti wants the negotiations to fail.

He says that Kurti openly demonstrated his Greater Albanian aspirations during his recent visit to North Macedonia and warns that the eventual unification of Kosovo and Albania would only be the first stage and that this project should also include the territories of other countries.

"Kurti's first obstacle to the realization of a "Greater Albania" is the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija, because they will never come to terms with it. That is why all his actions are aimed at terrorizing the Serbs so that they will leave Kosovo and Metohija because they are a barrier to the achievement of his goals," he points out.

The fact that a series of arrests of the Serbs is happening again, even though recently the head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, clearly requested that the actions of the Kosovo Police be coordinated with the KFOR mission, for Graovac is another indication that Kurti does not respect what he is being told from the West.

"He behaves extremely arrogantly, insolent. And this tells us that he has clear support for what he is doing and that all those statements that we have the opportunity to hear are essentially pro forma, and that the West also supports Kurti and his behavior. Therefore, I do not expect any particular reaction from the West in the coming period, unless the USA eventually concludes that the right moment has come to discipline Kurti and speed up the negotiation process. This may eventually become a reality if the US administration concludes that they need certain successes ahead of the presidential election, and if they conclude that they can achieve success here. In that case, we can expect the Americans to completely take over the negotiation process, and then they will behave differently towards Kurti. More specifically, Kurti will have to be more cooperative with their demands. If he doesn't, then what happened during the Trump administration will happen to him, which is to remove him from power, to replace him, because they have the instruments for that," Graovac concluded.

And the President of the Commission for Missing Persons of the Government of Serbia, Veljko Odalovic, said that Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti was undermining the dialogue because he wanted to continue on the path he had set - to completely occupy the north of Kosovo institutionally and with "police force" and to terrorize the Serbs there.

Odalovic tells Kosovo Online that all this shows that "Kurti is a serious threat to peace and stability in this area and that the international community must stop him".

"We spent years of dialogue with him so that he would say what he said even before he had gone to Brussels for the first time - that he did not want any of this, that he was not interested in it, that he had his own path. And his path is best seen in his behavior towards the north of Kosovo and Metohija in the last year. He occupied the north institutionally and with a 'police force' and is now carrying out terror," Odalovic said.

He also points out that there are serious criticisms against Kurti, not only in the last month but also for more than half a year, from the political leaders of the Kosovo Albanians who, as he states, are aware that what he is doing is directly against them and the position that is built in the West when it comes to Kosovo and the support it had. Odalovic states that those opposition leaders are concerned about the support of the international community, as well as whether any punitive measures will be taken against Kosovo.

"I believe that he will because his behavior is like a finger in the eye of the entire international community and the USA and Brussels and Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron. If he has support for what he is doing, then we are all in a serious problem. I believe that he doesn’t have and that we will return to dialogue as a mechanism, with all the topics that we nominated, with all the obligations that we both assumed, that we will return to that Declaration on Missing Persons, which was also blocked by Kurti," he says.

He points out that there is no alternative to dialogue, and that Kurti is playing on the "card" to make senseless the existence and functioning of the Serbs in Kosovo, especially in the north.

According to him, if the Community of Serb-majority Municipalities had been formed, it would not have been like that.

In this sense, he reminds that the CSM is a community of 10 municipalities with a Serb majority and that it is not only the municipalities located in the north - Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, Leposavic, and Zvecan, but also the other six in the south.

"Those collective rights that are planned to be provided to the Serbs, and they concern functioning in that area, is something that Kurti wants to prevent because the very decision of the 'container' mayors and the assembly, which are patched up in that way, that they want to join the Association of Kosovo Municipalities says that he does not intend to form the CSM at all," he points out.

However, as Odalovic emphasizes, the CSM will be formed with or without Kurti.

When it comes to the dialogue process, Odalovic notes that the EU has invested a lot as a mediator.

"They put in a lot of effort, and someone entered their dialogue who has been 'stringing' them along for three years and in the end accuses them of being on Serbia's side. We don't need that kind of support, nor do we have it; we just want the commitments undertaken to be fulfilled. And let his behavior towards the EU be a matter that they will clarify with him," Odalovic concludes.

Political commentator Predrag Rajic told Kosovo Online that Kurti's goal was to undermine the entire negotiation process, provoke an armed conflict, and drag Serbia into a conflict with NATO. He sees the new messages from Pristina and the actions of the Kosovo Police as a continuation of the provocation by Kurti's administration, which are aimed both at the official Belgrade and at the Serbs living in Kosovo.

"We also know that there were similar decisions and bans before, and this is an attempt, I would say, on the one hand, to score some points with the more extreme Albanians in Kosovo and Metohija, and to realize some kind of political gain by radicalizing the situation in that part of the Albanian political spectrum. On the other hand, of course, this further antagonizes the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija and in the rest of Serbia, because, of course, Kurti's goal is not to reach any dialogue or agreement. His goal is to undermine the entire negotiation process and to provoke an armed conflict, in connection with this we have this series of arrests in Kosovo and Metohija. Kurti obviously wants to bring the situation to a boil, in order to prepare the ground for an attempt at some new ethnic cleansing of the Serbs from northern Kosovo. Serbia would not allow that. And Kurti's ultimate goal is a direct conflict between Serbia and NATO, that is, to repeat the year 1999. Everything he does should be seen through that prism, and all his moves will be clear when they are put together in that mosaic," Rajic said.

Rajic sees the series of new provocations by Pristina as Kurti's desire to provoke a war directly, as he tried last year on several occasions with license plates and identity cards, and today with the arrests of the Serbs both south and north of the Ibar.

"He does this continuously, apparently, considering that now is his political moment to realize his chauvinist and megalomaniac goals, because he estimates that the international community may be ready to symbolically sanction him personally and his associates, but not the so-called Kosovo. He knows that as long as the so-called Kosovo is not sanctioned, he will not suffer any political consequences in Kosovo itself. He is personally a fanatic who is ready for a lot, and it is not a problem for him to endure some diplomatic and political tricks, but some kind of political retribution. He will not tolerate that and is ready to go to an even higher level of escalation in that sense," Rajic believes.

He adds that he does not see "the will of the international community to directly punish Kurti for his misdeeds", but only sees declarative support for dialogue and sometimes declarative condemnations of Kurti's actions.

"Until words are changed to actions, there will be no movement, I'm afraid, and I think that some kind of mutually acceptable solution that should be the result of this dialogue will be very far away," he said.