Diversion or poorly staged incident: Who benefits from tensions in Kosovo?

The latest in a series of incidents, the explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal near Zubin Potok, has led to heightened tensions in northern Kosovo and further strained relations between Belgrade and Pristina. The emergency meeting of the new European Commissioner for Foreign Affairs and Security, Kaja Kallas, with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti is just one piece of the puzzle in this emerging crisis. For commentators speaking to Kosovo Online, the key question that leads to all the answers is: Who benefits from these incidents and the creation of new tensions in Kosovo?

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

"An abnormal situation. In normal countries, you don’t see this much police anywhere," says a resident of North Mitrovica, describing life in northern Kosovo in recent days.

The increased presence of special, regular, and plainclothes police, along with searches and arrests, has become a common "choreography" in the four northern municipalities in recent months.

Following the explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal, the situation has further deteriorated for the Serbian community.

"Serbia is copying Russian methods to destabilize Kosovo and our region as a whole, but it will fail because we have the support of our European and U.S. allies," Kurti said at an emergency press conference.

Serbia's president also addressed the media, calling these accusations an attempt at a massive and fierce hybrid attack on Serbia. Vucic emphasized that Serbia is insisting on a thorough investigation.

"Our greatest interest is to uncover the truth; nothing is more important," Vucic underscored.

Members of the European Parliament are also calling for an international investigation. During a discussion before the EP's Foreign Affairs Committee on the explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal, they requested an international probe into the attack and evidence of Serbia’s involvement.

Kosovo’s Foreign Minister Donika Gërvalla reiterated accusations against Belgrade, claiming Serbia is operating "under a Russian script."

Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to Pristina Jeffrey Hovenier stated after a meeting of Quint and EU ambassadors with Kurti that the U.S. condemns the attack but, at this moment, cannot assign blame.

For Dragisa Mijacic, coordinator of the National Convention on the EU’s Working Group for Chapter 35, the key question is: Who benefits most from this incident?

"If local Serbs are to blame, why now—when they’ve had the last 25 years to act? Considering everything they’ve gone through since 1999, the canal has remained intact and secure all this time," Mijacic noted on his social media account.

Speculation and the International Context

Marko Savkovic, senior advisor at the ISAC Fund, does not expect the full truth about the explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal to come to light. He believes such incidents and their "timing" generally favor Pristina, as they pave the way for Kosovo Security Forces to extend their presence in the north.

"Broadly speaking, these incidents benefit Pristina because they allow it to demand full control, which includes deploying Kosovo Security Forces—or, as they call it, the Kosovo Army—to the north. However, the control they’ve already established is, I’d say, quite significant. Essentially, only KFOR remains as a third-instance actor, and from what we know, KFOR has prohibited such deployments for now," Savkovic explained to Kosovo Online.

Savkovic also does not rule out the possibility that certain actors in Belgrade might benefit from complicating the situation, portraying coexistence as impossible, thus paving the way for more radical solutions.

A third possibility, according to Savkovic, is that this incident was intended to divert public attention from other problems.

"Looking at how both Kosovo and Serbia’s partners reacted, Kurti’s explanation will gain some traction. I’m not saying it will ultimately be accepted, but it will find an audience. Kurti will have the opportunity to present his narrative surrounding this incident," Savkovic said.

However, he is pessimistic about the incident being fully clarified.

"I don’t expect a resolution because whatever findings Pristina comes to, Belgrade won’t accept. Yes, it’s true that the president has announced full cooperation from Belgrade and readiness. This has been promised before, but we can’t say that the investigation into the Banjska case reached a satisfactory conclusion," Savkovic noted.

At the same time, he does not expect Pristina's investigation to progress much further.

"Yes, some people have been detained and arrested, and a case will surely be opened. But one side will undoubtedly be dissatisfied with the findings. From Pristina’s perspective, their approach to this incident, including involving the international community to some extent and ensuring accountability, will always gain the support of their international partners and portray them as constructive actors—something they haven’t been in recent years," Savkovic added.

When asked whether the incident in Zubin Potok and the rising tensions are "timed" within an international context, this analyst ironically remarked that in the Western Balkans, "it’s always the right time for bad things."

"Unfortunately for us, the timing for bad things in this region always seems right. However, we now have an international context where many significant individuals are leaving, and others are stepping into their roles. These individuals are familiarizing themselves with the 'case file' or briefing on the Western Balkans and the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. This is an introduction that always favors one side," Savkovic said.

He added that he does not want to give room to conspiracy theories blaming either Pristina or Belgrade for recent events, as the truth is often "somewhere in the middle."

"But I also fear that we may never fully know the truth or who is responsible for what happened a few days ago," Savkovic concluded.

A "Third Actor" and Fractions

On the other hand, Milica Andric Rakic, program manager at the NGO New Social Initiative in North Mitrovica, told Kosovo Online that both Belgrade and Pristina have the least to gain from incidents in northern Kosovo. She warned that the explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal could lead to serious ethnic tensions and interethnic violence across Kosovo.

"There are various actors who could be responsible for incidents in northern Kosovo. I actually think that both official Belgrade and Pristina are last on the so-called list of suspects who would benefit from serious incidents here. Pristina seeks controlled tensions, while Belgrade does not want tensions, especially not large ones that could spark significant ethnic unrest and interethnic violence in Kosovo," Andric Rakic emphasized.

Milica Andric Rakic, Program Manager at the New Social Initiative, suggests that the recent explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal could be the result of a "third actor" or radical factions within Belgrade or Pristina that are more extreme than the official leadership.

"But at this moment, that is completely irrelevant. This incident was something that should and could have been prevented. It happened because we have been living in a constant atmosphere of crisis, fear, and intolerance for the past three years. This created perfect conditions for anyone wanting to act destructively, exert malign influence, and harm the quality of life for hundreds of thousands of people," Andric Rakic stressed.

She described the sabotage of the Ibar-Lepenac canal as not only highly irresponsible but also extremely dangerous.

"It remains dangerous. There’s little awareness in Kosovo that the crisis is not over, and we are not even at the beginning of the full remediation of the damage caused. In my view, the greatest responsibility lies with all those actors who could have calmed the situation long ago but didn’t, leaving Kosovo vulnerable to this kind of sabotage and diversion by anyone who benefits from incidents or turmoil in the region," she elaborated.

Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti blamed Serbia for the incident, but Andric Rakic argued there is no clear interest for Belgrade in such an act, as it jeopardized electricity and water supplies for hundreds of thousands of people.

"I think Kosovo’s institutions are not being entirely honest with citizens when explaining the potential effects of this sabotage on their quality of life. I believe this will impact interethnic relations in the coming weeks and could lead to larger incidents—though I hope not to the scale of those in 2004. From this perspective, I really don’t see how this could benefit Belgrade," Andric Rakic concluded.

Unraveling the Enigma

In Pristina, Professor of Constitutional Law Mazlum Baraliu emphasized that, regardless of accusations, investigations and judicial proceedings should determine who is responsible for the explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal.

He pointed out that many destructive power centers do not favor peace in the Balkans.

"Nobody knows who did what, but this enigma has begun to unravel. Certain officials have spoken out, but those claims need to be substantiated through institutional judicial proceedings," Baraliu told Kosovo Online.

Commenting on Prime Minister Kurti’s allegations of Serbia’s direct involvement, Baraliu noted that since coming to power, Aleksandar Vucic has pursued policies that have been detrimental to Kosovo.

"This intention has been openly stated by certain politicians, including Vucic himself, who have said they will never recognize Kosovo as an independent state," Baraliu said.

He highlighted other incidents, such as the Banjska case, as part of this broader trend.

"Even the withdrawal of Serbian representatives from institutions was part of an agreement signed in Brussels by Vucic, Dacic, and other representatives from Serbia and Kosovo," Baraliu explained.

Baraliu stressed that both Pristina and Belgrade should refrain from making accusations without evidence, leaving the matter to judicial authorities.

"If this was carried out by an 'invisible hand,' or organized crime without the support of any state—in this case, Serbia—then, of course, it should be investigated. Vucic has expressed his willingness to cooperate and even accept the findings of international investigations," he added.

Baraliu also linked the incident to global destructive power centers, citing Russia, Beijing, and other regions.

"Nobody needed the conflicts of the 1990s on this blessed land of the Balkans, and we certainly don’t need them now or in the future. Unfortunately, there are dark power centers that do not want positive developments or democratic and humane solutions. They use destructive policies, driven by ideologies that lead nowhere. War benefits no one. Under the influence of the Russia-Ukraine war, certain forces seek to create turbulence. This includes not only Russia and Beijing but also other centers of power globally," Baraliu concluded.

Strategic Timing and Consequences

Historian Stefan Radojkovic expressed skepticism that the investigation would yield results. Instead, he anticipated an increased police presence and pressure on the Serbian community in Kosovo.

"I don’t expect results. I expect political statements, and even if there are preliminary findings, they will likely be buried under a sea of information from Pristina's administration," Radojkovic emphasized.

He believes the incident will primarily impact the Serbian community in Kosovo.

"On the ground, this will likely result in the northern municipalities being filled with more police units, applying pressure on the Serbian population and ‘encouraging’ their relocation or, at the very least, complicating their lives. This is all part of preparations for the upcoming elections organized by Pristina in February," Radojkovic noted.

Asked if the incident might be linked to a planned dinner for Western Balkan leaders hosted by European Council President António Costa, Radojkovic described the timing as "ideal" but not solely tied to this event.

"The timing seems crafted not just for this incident but also in light of the upcoming U.S. administration change. Pristina appears to recognize that while the U.S. will maintain its strategic direction, the new administration is less favorable to Kurti. This is an attempt to maintain international focus on Kosovo and bolster relations with the EU and German administrations, which are also undergoing changes," Radojkovic explained.

He argued that the explosion in the Ibar-Lepenac canal appears to benefit Pristina more than Belgrade.

"It seems Pristina benefits more, as Belgrade has been avoiding association with violence in Kosovo since the Banjska case. This strengthens the argument that Pristina gains more from this incident," he stated.

Radojkovic also questioned the efficiency of Kosovo's police, given their significant presence in the north.

"There are four northern municipalities filled with Kosovo police. If someone managed to carry out this act, it raises questions about their efficiency. If it wasn’t oversight, it suggests complicity, as such incidents benefit Pristina's administration," Radojkovic concluded.

He warned of the strategic importance of Gazivode Lake, which spans both sides of the administrative line and is vital for Kosovo's energy and water supply.

"The sensitivity of this infrastructure underscores the vulnerabilities of Pristina's administration," Radojkovic said.

Ultimately, he believes the incident aimed to keep international attention on Kosovo.

"Pristina is trying to escalate tensions to maintain international focus and push for recognition of its administration. This strategy mirrors tactics seen in other regions, such as Ukraine and Syria," Radojkovic concluded.