Kosovo is rapidly losing its workforce; what follows after visa liberalization?

Due to its low living standards, unstable political situation, and constant security crises, Kosovo is losing its workforce significantly. A real exodus might happen from January 1st when visa liberalization for travel to European Union countries is expected to take effect. As the interlocutors of Kosovo Online, economic professionals from Pristina, warn the labor market had already begun to "import" the workforce mainly from Asian countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. It is estimated that more than 150,000 workers from Kosovo could head to Western European countries next year.

The Business Alliance of Kosovo recently pointed out these alarming figures and noted that around 110,000 citizens of Kosovo from various professions had left Kosovo with work visas in 2022 and 2021. It's expected that about 50,000 will leave by the end of this year. They emphasize that workers are leaving due to poor working conditions and low wages.

President of the Business Alliance of Kosovo, Agim Shahini, stated that, according to the data they had, the unemployment rate reached as high as 35 percent, and that despite this, Kosovo was "importing" labor force because domestic workers were unwilling to work for low wages, and they preferred to seek a better life abroad.

Shahini told Kosovo Online that foreign workers mostly came from Turkey, India, and Bangladesh, while the local workforce predominantly migrated to Germany.

"The unemployment rate in Kosovo, according to official data, is higher than 20 percent, and unofficially, it even exceeds 35 percent. We are 'importing' labor force from several countries, typically from Turkey, India, and Bangladesh. They come to work in Kosovo, and the reason why our workers don't work and thus reduce unemployment is that they have a certain standard of living, receive support from relatives in the diaspora, and refuse to work for low wages," Shahini said.

Shahini emphasizes that after the visa liberalization for EU countries, which takes effect on January 1st next year, there will be a wave of working-age people leaving Kosovo.

"Young people are waiting for January 1, 2024, to go to European countries in search of a better life and standard. Most of them are planning to go to Germany because of the Labor Market Liberalization Law, which has been adopted and comes into effect in December. According to this law, any worker or tourist from the Balkans who finds a job in this country will receive all the necessary permits for residence and work through an expedited procedure. First, they go to the company where they have found a job, then to the municipality, and they issue a work visa within a month. We, as the Business Alliance of Kosovo, have warned business owners that if we want to retain the workforce, we need to increase wages, and that's the only way," Shahini points out.

He adds that it is estimated that with the implementation of visa liberalization, Kosovo will lose 150,000 people, which is a significant number for Kosovo.

“If we take an average, in 2021, more than 55,000 workers with work permits went to Germany, and in 2022, about 60,000. Workers from all professions are leaving, but mainly those who, for the jobs they are trained for, receive five times higher salaries abroad than in Kosovo. According to research we conducted, in 2024, we will have a figure of 150,000 people leaving Kosovo for EU countries, which is a significant number for us because we are small and have a small population, which means we will have a shortage of consumers, voters, and a workforce," Shahini said.

When asked about the impact of the Kosovo Government's policy on young people leaving, considering the unresolved issues with Serbia and the blockade of the dialogue on normalizing relations, Shahini says that both the Government of Serbia and the Government of Kosovo must find a strategy to retain young people.

"The Government of Serbia and the Government of Kosovo should bear in mind that, according to research conducted by Eurostat, the emigration of citizens from both Kosovo and Serbia is significant. Serbia will have about five million citizens by 2030, while Kosovo will have less than a million. Both governments need to create a strategy to retain young people. If this trend continues, we will have an even greater number of departures from both Serbia and Kosovo. So, the sooner these relations are resolved, the better it will be for the economy and the citizens," Shahini concluded.

The fact that Kosovo has become increasingly "import-dependent" on workers coming from Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and other countries in recent years, as the domestic workforce is leaving for jobs abroad, is also highlighted by economic expert Safet Gerxhaliu. He warns that this problem could escalate further after January 1st, with the onset of visa liberalization for EU countries.

As Gerxhaliu points out, the young population is leaving Kosovo the most, not only those who are unemployed or in a difficult social situation but also the educated ones, leaving the private sector without a workforce.

"The worst part is that, in addition to being import-dependent for various products and services, we are now import-dependent for labor. According to some unofficial data, we have employees from Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India. If this trend continues, their number will increase every year. Considering that we will have visa liberalization from January, I am afraid that we will have a significant exodus in the short term, as a large number of young people will try to go to the West and find jobs," Gerxhaliu said.

The biggest problem, he emphasizes, is that young people from Kosovo are leaving after finishing high school or college, and among them, there are many from the medical field - doctors, as well as IT professionals.

"From Kosovo, not only those who are unemployed and social cases are leaving, but educated people are leaving too, even families with good incomes and a good life because they are afraid for their future. When it comes to security, safety, healthcare, and education, everyone seeks better conditions. This is a significant problem: what will happen to the private sector in the future, especially when it comes to economic development planning, how will it be achieved through importing a workforce, or how will economic development be achieved when we export high-quality and educated labor force?" Gerxhaliu wonders.

He claims that people from Kosovo primarily go to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, but also to Slovenia, Italy, and Croatia...

"Europe is aging, it needs a new labor force, and in that context, unfortunately, due to political instability and everything happening in this region, the Western Balkan countries have become 'escape countries', and this is the best service we can do to develop EU and European countries," Gerxhaliu said.

Despite warnings from experts that there will be a massive exodus of workers, Gerxhaliu claims that no one has realized the seriousness of the situation.

"In this context, we must learn one thing – better safe than sorry. If we had economic development at a desirable level, if we had education tailored to the labor market needs, and foreign investments, we certainly wouldn't be where we are now. There are big challenges ahead, but I hope that young people will understand that Europe is no longer what it used to be, that they will try that 'forbidden fruit', and that they will return here someday because you should build a perspective where you are, not where you wish to be," Gerxhaliu emphasized.