The New U.S. Administration and expectations: Could Kosovo's solution become a model for Palestine and Ukraine?

An idea that seemed old and unattainable is gaining traction with Donald Trump’s new mandate—territorial exchange as a principle for resolving conflicts. Political scientist Ognjen Gogic goes further, suggesting that under Trump, this solution could first be implemented in Kosovo. If successful, it might serve as a prototype for resolving conflicts in Palestine and Ukraine. "Difficult to achieve, but with Trump, anything is possible," sources told Kosovo Online.

Written by: Arsenije Vuckovic

The concept of territorial exchange as a potential solution for Kosovo resurfaced during Donald Trump’s first term as U.S. president. Initially, key actors in Belgrade and Pristina, followed by the EU, ultimately dismissed the idea.

During this campaign, Trump promised to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to Reuters, he plans to appoint former Ambassador to Germany and Special Envoy for the Western Balkans, Richard Grenell, to take on this challenge.

At a Bloomberg roundtable in July, Grenell proposed creating "autonomous zones" as a conflict resolution method.

Former U.S. diplomats have been more specific.

Jason Steinbaum, former Chief of Staff for Congressman Eliot Engel and co-author of a report on Kosovo, predicted that Trump’s administration might revive the idea of a territorial exchange between Kosovo and Serbia.

"Donald Trump sees himself as the world's greatest negotiator. My assumption is that he will propose a territorial exchange and pressure both sides to accept it," said Steinbaum, regarded as one of the Albanian lobbyists in the U.S.

Similarly, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN and National Security Advisor during Trump’s first term, John Bolton, said that the U.S. hopes Belgrade and Pristina will find a mutually acceptable solution, including territorial exchange.

"This would contribute to stability in the Balkans," Bolton stated.

However, Pristina's authorities firmly oppose the idea.

"The Kosovo government rejects projects and solutions of a territorial nature," said government spokesperson Perparim Krieziu.

Trump's "Patent"

In an interview with Kosovo Online, political scientist Ognjen Gogic explained that if Trump reactivates this old idea, Kosovo could indeed become a model to be applied later in Palestine and Ukraine.

"The feasibility of territorial exchange depends primarily on local actors. In 2017 and 2018, it seemed that both Belgrade and Pristina were considering territorial delineation or exchange as a way out of the situation. This created fertile ground for Trump’s administration. However, local actors, in both Belgrade and Pristina, eventually realized it wasn’t the wisest solution. Trump might propose it again as part of a package with other incentives, such as promises of economic aid for infrastructure projects," Gogic said.

Currently, Gogic noted, there is little interest in such solutions in either Belgrade or Pristina.

"Especially with Albin Kurti in power in Pristina, who seems more inclined to seek new territories rather than relinquish any part of Kosovo," Gogic observed.

Asked about the likelihood of such a scenario, he recalled that during Trump’s previous term, no one expected Kosovo to become part of the Middle East peace process—yet it did.

"Trump proclaimed the Washington Agreement accepted by Belgrade and Pristina as a deal that led to Israel's recognition by a Muslim-majority state—Kosovo. During those negotiations, two topics intertwined: the Palestine issue and Kosovo. In both cases, the idea of territorial exchange was present," Gogic emphasized.

He also pointed out that Trump’s 2020 plan for Palestine explicitly mentioned territorial exchange as a conflict resolution strategy.

"This same approach could resurface for Kosovo. For instance, swapping northern Kosovo for the Presevo Valley. If the Kosovo case proves territorial exchange can work as a mechanism for agreement, it could be proposed for Ukraine and Palestine as well," Gogic concluded.

A Flawed Perception

Former Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Thomas Countryman, told Kosovo Online that the idea of territorial exchange is fundamentally flawed.

"I said five years ago when this was first proposed that it’s not a good idea. It’s not viable because no Balkan state is ethnically pure. If a country cannot function as multiethnic, exchanging people or territories won’t solve the problem," Countryman argued.

Asked whether a Trump-led U.S. administration could resolve Kosovo's, Palestine's, and Ukraine's issues through territorial solutions, Countryman expressed skepticism.

"I won’t comment on Palestine or Ukraine, but resolving the Serbia-Kosovo issue won’t be among Trump’s top 50 priorities," he emphasized.

He added that the perception that the U.S. and EU are most responsible for stalled negotiations is incorrect.

"The problem with dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina lies in Belgrade and Pristina—not Washington or Brussels. A new U.S. president cannot change that," Countryman stressed.

He also dismissed parallels between the conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and Kosovo.

"I don’t see the connection, frankly," Countryman concluded.

Dialogue Acceleration

Branka Latinovic, former ambassador to the EU and a member of the Forum for International Relations, doubts that Kosovo could serve as a model for resolving crises in the Middle East or Ukraine.

"I don’t think this issue will be approached in that way. But it’s a dual-track approach. Territorialization could mean maintaining sovereignty as it is, or it could mean other combinations and models. Right now, discussions around Ukraine suggest a frozen conflict rather than territorial solutions. It’s too early to draw conclusions. But with Trump being unpredictable, surprises are always possible," Latinovic told Kosovo Online.

She also warned that territorialization in Ukraine could lead to changes in Moscow's stance on Kosovo.

"When discussing Kosovo and Ukraine, the connection is whether Putin might seek a trade-off—recognizing Kosovo in exchange for the annexed territories being recognized as Russian. Such proposals might emerge. Whether they happen or not is speculative, as no official statements have confirmed or denied this possibility," Latinovic said.

She adds that much more will become clear once negotiations begin and a range of options is put on the table.

"At that point, we’ll see how this mosaic comes together—whether it develops and aligns with the current expectations or results in an entirely new arrangement shaped by ideas and proposals that emerge during the negotiations. Right now, everything we hear reflects maximalist positions. Every negotiating side wants to establish its position as maximalist to eventually achieve an acceptable optimum, which we then call a compromise," Latinovic explains.

This seasoned diplomat is confident that the new U.S. administration will leave the European Union to finalize the normalization process between Belgrade and Pristina. However, this does not mean that the new U.S. president wouldn’t accelerate the process through pressure, incentives, or deadlines.

"We shouldn’t expect significant U.S. engagement regarding the Western Balkans. The European Union will be left to complete the normalization process between Belgrade and Pristina. What can and should be expected is for the U.S., and Trump personally, to exert pressure to ensure the process is concluded more swiftly, avoiding inefficiencies, delays, and problems like those seen in the past. Trump is known for disliking crises, conflicts, or uncertainties, so it’s likely we’ll see appropriate incentives and possibly deadlines for resolving this issue," Latinovic concludes.