Post-election math in Kosovo: Does opposition unification lead to a new government?

A narrow and fragile majority, but a majority nonetheless. This could describe the future Government of Kosovo if it were formed by the three opposition parties, which, according to preliminary election results, have more MPs combined than Albin Kurti's Self-Determination Movement. This option would also be the most favorable for the West, but it will still largely depend on calculations of who would, due to the upcoming local and presidential elections, benefit more: the current opposition or the current prime minister, interlocutors of Kosovo Online say.

Written by Arsenije Vuckovic

The Central Election Commission is still counting votes from polling stations, and as of yesterday, 73.23% of the votes had been counted. According to earlier preliminary results, the Self-Determination Movement won a decisive victory with over 41% of the votes. However, the three opposition parties – Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), and the coalition around the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) – together will have more MPs, and if they are to be believed, they have no intention of forming any alliance with Albin Kurti.

"Now, we have firm positions from two parties, PDK and AAK, that they do not accept even a coalition with Self-Determination and want a joint three-party government: PDK, LDK, and AAK. If the same will exists in LDK, then it seems that this will be the most likely option," political analyst Visar Ymeri assessed.

He believes that negotiations and agreements on a coalition will not be easy, but that the opposition parties have "understood the seriousness of the situation and the circumstances in which Kosovo finds itself."

Deadlock

This scenario is also supported by university professor and former diplomat Blerim Canaj.

In an interview with Kosovo Online, he claims that the election results have placed all the parties in a "deadlock," which is why the most likely coalition government would be LDK, PDK, and AAK, but with a limited duration.

"An opposition coalition is possible. None of them have enough MPs on their own, and if they form a coalition, it is very likely that we will have new elections in a year due to the presidential election. This is a deadlock for all parties," Canaj said.

He specified that the leaders of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) have explicitly stated that they do not want a coalition with Self-Determination.

However, he does not rule out the possibility that, in the end, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) might be open to it, as its leader, Lumir Abdixhiku, has not been as decisive so far.

"It is possible, but we cannot say with 100% certainty that he is ready because Kurti cannot be trusted. That is the issue. We know how the coalition with LDK played out last time. When forming a coalition, trust must exist, and I have the feeling that no one trusts Kurti anymore," Canaj emphasized.

When asked how much influence MPs from minority communities could have in tipping the balance, he pointed out that the Kosovo Constitution clearly states that they must be part of the executive government.

"Every government must work with minorities, and I don’t see any issue with that," he stressed.

He claimed that the opposition would be much more "constructive" in its approach to minorities.

"I believe the opposition is more constructive, especially regarding the Serbian minority in Kosovo. They have a different perspective. At least from what I see, they do not want to use minorities solely for their political goals but genuinely want the integration of the Serbian minority into institutions and life in Kosovo. That is why I think the opposition is more constructive when it comes to minorities, particularly the Serbian community," Canaj asserted.

Foreign factor

On the other hand, political scientist Ognjen Gogic believes that Kosovo is closer to new elections than to forming a new government.

"No one is satisfied with these results. Neither Self-Determination nor the opposition parties. They are all in a situation where they cannot form a government they would be happy with. The only thing that could change this is foreign influence. If Western Europe or the US instruct the current opposition to unite in order to send Kurti into the opposition, that could be the deciding factor. Otherwise, no one seems particularly interested in forming a new government," Gogic told Kosovo Online.

For this reason, he does not rule out the possibility of new elections.

"It is possible that there will actually be new elections, which could coincide with the local elections coming in the fall, or they could take place after the Kosovo parliament fails to elect a new president, which is due in just over a year. So, in the next year, we should expect new elections," Gogic emphasized.

He specified that despite the fact that the three opposition parties – PDK, LDK, and AAK – collectively have more votes than the Self-Determination Movement, a post-election coalition should not be expected.

"What prevents them from forming a government are their mutual relations, first and foremost. They have previously formed coalition governments, which were more or less long-lasting. They have differences among themselves, and the only thing uniting them is opposition to Kurti and his policies. That is their only cohesive factor," he said.

He also points out that any potential coalition government they might form would be the result of their greater alignment with the West compared to Self-Determination.

"All three opposition parties are more pro-Western and are not willing to take risks or jeopardize relations with the West. They are more receptive to suggestions or directives coming from the West," Gogic explained.

However, he doubts that such a coalition will materialize, as each of these parties prioritizes strategic thinking.

"The key consideration is whether it is in their interest to form a government that would be unstable, risking it being short-lived, and then having Kurti return to power even stronger than before," Gogic explained.

He says that the election of Kosovo’s new president, scheduled for April next year and requiring a two-thirds parliamentary majority, is a crucial moment.

"With the current level of support in parliament, Kurti can block this process, which means that any coalition they form would be a compromise that satisfies no one, and it would already be known that new elections would be held the following year. They would then enter those elections from a weaker starting position. So, the strategic question is whether it is wise to proceed with this or not," Gogic clarified.

He believes that in this political calculation, the Democratic League of Kosovo is the most cautious.

"LDK is the least inclined to enter into a coalition agreement precisely because it expects its ratings to rise in the coming period, putting it in a better position to negotiate a new government after the next elections," Gogic said.

When asked how a future opposition-led government would treat the Serbian community, he emphasized that all three parties – PDK, LDK, and AAK – had previously been in power and had their own prime ministers.

"All of them were more tolerant or had slightly more understanding for Serbs in Kosovo compared to the current government led by Albin Kurti. Their policies toward Serbs were more moderate. Perhaps this was out of respect for the Serbs themselves, but more likely because of the international community. They did not want to risk damaging their reputation. In a way, they sought to prove to the West that they were the ones who respected the rights of communities in Kosovo," Gogic stated.

Political dialogue

A colleague at the Center for Social Stability, Aleksa Tojcic, believes that the three opposition parties could form a new Kosovo government, but that it is important that the Serb List be included in this process.

"I am more inclined to believe that the opposition will form a majority. This is primarily due to the stance of the new US administration, which does not support Albin Kurti. I am sure they will try to have the three opposition parties in Kosovo form a new coalition majority, along with the participation of the Serb List in that political dialogue," Tojcic said for Kosovo Online.

According to him, the Serbian community in Kosovo is guaranteed one ministerial post and two deputy minister positions in the Government of Kosovo, but he stressed that establishing a dialogue with the Serb List is crucial.

"I believe these opposition parties will find a way to establish a dialogue with the Serb List, and I think that would be good. In previous periods, this proved to be a much better option than when Albin Kurti took power and tried, in every sense, to completely exclude the Serbian community from both the political sphere and every other aspect," Tojcic is convinced.

He believes that in this way, ethnic tensions and repression against the Serbian community could be reduced.

This, he emphasizes, would enable them to have normal living conditions.

"I believe that the new US administration will certainly have a say in this," Tojcic added.