From tensions to escalation: What does Guterres' report really reveal about the situation in Kosovo?

The atmosphere in northern Kosovo remains tense, with the potential for escalation, as stated in the regular report by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. According to interlocutors for Kosovo Online, tensions in northern Kosovo do exist, but they emphasize that the likelihood of escalation is low. Analysts blame the West for the difficult position of Serbs and point out the risk of interference from a third party that could impact security.

By: Milena Miladinovic

"Unilateral actions, such as the closure of institutions funded by Belgrade, restrictions on the flow of goods, and announcements of the opening of the bridge over the Ibar, raise tensions and diminish trust between communities," states Guterres' report.

It is emphasized that such actions not only disrupt the normal life and socio-economic rights of those affected but also seriously jeopardize overall progress and stability.

"It is essential that the actions of political leaders align with the needs and rights of all communities," Guterres stated.

He also stressed the importance of law enforcement, especially during arrests, detentions, and property matters, acting fully in line with legal frameworks and international human rights standards.

The UN Secretary-General’s six-month report on UNMIK’s work was discussed on October 30 in New York at a UN Security Council session. Caroline Ziadeh, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General in Kosovo and head of the UNMIK Mission, emphasized that the situation in the north is fragile, progress is slow, and she deemed the announcements of opening the bridge on the Ibar in North Mitrovica as dangerous.

At the UN Security Council session, Serbia, represented by Foreign Minister Marko Đuric, stated that human rights violations and unilateral actions by Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti's regime are creating an atmosphere of fear and instability.

On the other hand, Kosovo once again took the opportunity to point fingers at Serbia, urging others not to believe in what it called Serbia’s "absurd lies."

“Let us be clear that we do not believe in any such absurd lie that the citizens of Kosovo lack access to healthcare, bank accounts, or local services. We have many Serbian citizens in the northern municipalities of the Republic of Kosovo who are pleased to tell us that they can finally breathe, without fear, and that they can finally register their children in the municipality after so many years,” said Kosovo’s Foreign Minister Donika Gërvalla at the UN Security Council session.

Observers pointed out that while tensions in northern Kosovo are high, there is currently no danger of escalation. However, they assess that as long as Kosovo and Serbia have not reached an agreement, there is a risk of foreign interference that could threaten security. Regarding the small but visible progress, which Guterres also mentioned in his report, they note that this is not evident in practice and that Serbs in the north lack guaranteed human rights.

No Actor for Escalation

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic pointed out that while there is a high risk of increased tensions and continued human rights violations and disorder in Kosovo, there is no likelihood of escalation.

Gogic notes that the report makes it clear that Pristina is responsible for the tensions in Kosovo, but it does not specify which side could potentially lead to escalation.

"In Guterres' report, two terms are used—tensions and escalation. Tensions mean that there are issues that disrupt relations between communities or between communities and the central government in Pristina, creating animosity. Escalation would mean that one of the sides would undertake some radical or violent measures. Tensions are always the starting point for future escalation. However, for escalation to occur, someone would have to act as an agent of that radicalization, i.e., take violent steps. Here, Guterres was not clear about whom he meant. It is clear that when it comes to tensions, he was unequivocal in pointing to unilateral actions by the government in Pristina as the cause, but he was less specific regarding escalation and who might take violent action. So, we can only speculate whom he was referring to," Gogic told Kosovo Online.

He assesses that the risk of escalation is not high and that there are no actors on either side who would undertake "mass violent action."

He notes that Guterres may have had last year’s events in Zvecan and Banjska in mind when talking about escalation.

"So, the risk of tensions is high, the risk of human rights violations, the risk of disorder is high, but the risk of escalation is not high because I don't see any actor who could undertake some mass violent action. When Guterres wrote about this, he was not necessarily referring to Pristina; often, the reference is to last year’s events, specifically the conflict between Serbs and KFOR in Zvecan in May and the armed attack in Banjska," the political scientist points out.

Gogic emphasizes that the situation in Kosovo is still not good.

"When we say that escalation may not be likely, it doesn't mean the situation is good—far from it. We are now in a situation where the position and rights of Serbs are deteriorating, but there is no resistance. They actually lack the potential to properly resist this. I would conclude that tensions are high, the deterioration of human rights for the Serbian community is significant, but the risk of escalation is not high simply because there does not appear to be an actor who could undertake widespread violent action," he says.

When asked whether the increase in tensions is a result of the pre-election campaign or whether everyday incidents have raised the atmosphere to a boiling point, Gogic recalls that the current government in Kosovo, led by the Self-Determination Movement, has undertaken unilateral actions since coming to power.

He adds that it all began in September 2021 when entry was banned for vehicles with plates from central Serbia.

"For three full years, we've seen various unilateral actions. Unilateral actions cannot be explained by the election campaign, as they existed before. However, if Self-Determination returns to power, as it likely will, it will continue to undertake unilateral actions. This is somehow the mode in which the current government in Pristina operates. In that sense, it is more than rhetoric; these are very concrete moves that have led to tensions, to the erosion of Serbian rights in Kosovo, to the dissatisfaction of Serbs in Kosovo, and to the breakdown of what minimal trust there was in Pristina. These actions led to escalation at one point, but now we see that they are also part of the election campaign and probably won’t change until after the elections," Gogic stated.

He emphasizes that international missions still present in Kosovo play a secondary role in reducing tensions, explaining that they expect Kosovo institutions to be the ones to guarantee order, respect for rights, and legal security.

Gogic points out that the international community has invested a lot of resources, time, and money to build Kosovo's institutions to the point where they can independently protect human rights.

“This has not happened in practice, and the Serbian community is rightly dissatisfied with the work of the missions, especially EULEX, because they still cannot rely on Kosovo’s institutions to ultimately protect their rights,” the political scientist stated.

He notes that EULEX and KFOR see themselves as needing to respond only when things become dramatic and deteriorate significantly on the ground.

“This actually shows that it is time for preventive action. Primarily, they should control the institutions in Kosovo to a greater extent, monitor their work, and work on building trust between Serbs and institutions, but they do none of that. They have reduced their role to some monitoring and report-making, which brings nothing to the Serbs in Kosovo,” Gogic concluded.

Without Agreement Between Kosovo and Serbia, Escalation is Possible

Professor of European Law Avni Mazreku believes that the risk of escalating the situation in Kosovo, and in the Western Balkans, will remain until a final agreement is reached between Belgrade and Pristina.

“As long as there is no final agreement between Serbia and Kosovo to normalize relations, and as long as these two political actors do not act constructively, there is a risk of escalating the security situation in the Balkans. While the two countries have not yet reached a point of definitive normalization of mutual relations, third-party actors interested in destabilizing the Balkans are also present in the region,” Mazreku told Kosovo Online.

According to him, as long as there is no agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, there is a danger of foreign interference, which, he adds, could lead to an escalation of the situation.

“That is why it is urgent for Kosovo and Serbia to find the right path and reach the political moment where citizens of both countries, especially those living in northern Kosovo, are guaranteed a normal life. This can be achieved through a common political stance. The interests of both countries are EU membership, the use of development funds allocated by the EU, which will directly impact the improvement of life for the citizens of both countries, and their NATO membership, despite strong public opposition in Serbia. I believe transatlantic integration is inevitable for countries located in this part of Europe. Countries like Croatia, Albania, and Serbia, which are part of the Western Balkans, have no other interest than their Euro-Atlantic integrations,” Mazreku added.

The elections in Kosovo, as well as those held in the EU, will significantly advance the dialogue process between Kosovo and Serbia, according to Mazreku.

“When we talk about politicians, their ambitions are everywhere, including in Kosovo; every politician has their political benefits. If we speak about the current government, the dialogue with Serbia was a peripheral priority, but the truth is that the dialogue was not a peripheral point of the political agenda. I think that the elections at the end of February, and the elections in the EU, will substantially impact the intensity of the talks and reaching common points to find certain solutions. In this case, both the EU elections and the elections in Kosovo will advance the dialogue process,” he emphasized.

He noted that the Association of Serb Municipalities (ASM) is still a hot topic, but there is no doubt that it will be formed. However, according to Mazreku, the current government will resist forming the ASM until February 9, when elections will be held in Kosovo.

“After this date, we will see concrete steps toward the formation of the ASM,” Mazreku concluded.

The West is Responsible for the Poor Situation

Nemanja Bisevac, an advisor to the rector at the University of Pristina with a temporary seat in Kosovska Mitrovica, pointed out that human rights do not apply to Serbs in northern Kosovo, and the West is responsible for the poor state in which Serbs find themselves.

Bisevac noted that the progress Guterres mentions in his report is not seen in practice.

According to him, when human rights are discussed in Kosovo, it does not refer to Serbs in northern Kosovo.

“I would disagree with Mr. Guterres' words; there is no visible progress in practice. The Serbian people in northern Kosovo and Metohija face increasing pressures daily. Not only has there been no improvement in human rights, but the Serbian people in the north are without those rights,” Bisevac said.

Pressures on Serbs in the north have become an everyday occurrence, Bisevac observes, adding that Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti, along with his party members, is only now entering into pre-election rhetoric.

“I think we have yet to reach that pre-election rhetoric, and that Kurti and his party members are just starting to warm up and enter the campaign, while their pressures on the Serbian people and Serbian institutions have become a daily routine,” Bisevac added.

He stated that the West is responsible for the poor position of Serbs in Kosovo, as it has allowed the Pristina authorities to behave “arrogantly” towards Serbs.

“I believe that the collective blame and responsibility for the situation of the Serbian people should fall entirely on the West, which allowed the authorities in Pristina to behave ‘arrogantly’ toward the Serbian people. In a matter of months, they shut down Serbian banks and the Post Office, leaving Serbs without social support. EULEX, as their representative on the ground, is certainly the most responsible. All of Kurti's and Sveçla's ideas and intentions are implemented by their police, so they are all equally responsible for the poor state in which the Serbian people find themselves,” our interlocutor concluded.