Carpenter: US distancing from NATO would have catastrophic consequences for the European security architecture

Senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Mike Carpenter, said in an interview for Kosovo Online that a potential distancing of the United States from NATO would have catastrophic consequences for the European security architecture.

Carpenter also pointed out that the current moment, that is, the next few years, could be a major turning point in the history of the 21st century, and that it is unclear how the strategic decoupling taking place on both sides of the Atlantic will unfold, which will certainly affect the EU’s ability to continue with enlargement.

How realistic is the possibility that the US will distance itself from NATO, and what would that mean for the security architecture in the Balkans, especially for the Serbian community in Kosovo?

I think the starting point here is that if the United States were to significantly distance itself from NATO, as it is currently doing, the consequences for the entire European security architecture would be catastrophic. I think many people focus exclusively on the narrow question of whether the United States could formally withdraw from the NATO alliance. There was a provision added to the National Defense Authorization Act of 2004 stating that this would require an act of Congress or a two-thirds majority in the US Senate. I am not worried about that, because I do not think the votes are there. What concerns me is that President Donald Trump could, on any day, at any moment, decide to post on social media that the United States no longer feels bound to honor its commitments to NATO, and that would effectively and immediately undermine the credibility of Article 5, with broad consequences for US security and international security, not only in Europe but, frankly, around the world.

Think about the Arctic, the Indo-Pacific, other places, Cuba, now that the Russians are sending another tanker to Cuba, which has wide implications for the Western Balkans. That simply means that the credibility of US forces currently participating in KFOR would be much lower. At NATO headquarters in Bosnia and Herzegovina there is a much smaller contingent of US forces. But this is also important because it encourages those actors who want to overturn the status quo and gives them more room to maneuver in terms of undermining security interests in the region.

If the US were to reduce its role in NATO or withdraw support, how would that affect KFOR’s presence and its ability to guarantee security for the Serbian population in Kosovo?

It makes a huge difference, because the United States is currently the second largest contributor, after Italy, in terms of forces we provide to KFOR, which is roughly around 600 troops. But it is not so much about the number of forces or personnel we currently have in Kosovo. It is the symbolic aspect of US investment in Kosovo’s security, in preventing those within Kosovo or, especially from outside, from destabilizing the country. And in that case, if US participation in NATO were to decline, it would be an open question whether European countries would immediately fill that gap or whether there would be some delay. Would they bring the same level of deterrence credibility as US forces? I do not know the answer to those questions, but I think that again creates an opportunity for those who might try to exert some kind of malign influence, whether in northern Kosovo or elsewhere in the region, to do so.

Could rising tensions between the US and Europe, combined with the war in the Middle East, shift EU priorities further away from enlargement and what would that mean for the European integration path of the Western Balkans?

I think there is a real risk that this moment, the next few years, will be a major turning point in the history of the 21st century, comparable only to the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, World War II, and similar moments. This is the kind of moment we are living through now, because we do not know whether NATO will survive the coming years or not. There is a strategic decoupling taking place on both sides of the Atlantic between the United States and Europe. We do not know how it will unfold, but it will have consequences in terms of security, the economy, trade, great power competition. For the Western Balkans, this will likely, indeed certainly, affect the EU’s ability to continue enlargement. I think it will raise questions about the enlargement agenda. Therefore, we will have to see whether this results in a return to some form of two-speed discussions on Europe in Brussels, or whether there is a possibility that it could paradoxically increase the pace at which certain Western Balkan countries are admitted to the EU. I am thinking in particular of Montenegro, which could potentially, together with Iceland, join as a kind of reassurance to the rest of the broader region that EU enlargement is alive, but that remains an open question.