Troude: The 1999 bombing of FRY was the "beginning of the end," now is the right time for a conference on Kosovo

French historian and geopolitics professor at the University of Versailles, Alexis Troude, has stated that the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia had marked the "beginning of the end" in international relations and that now is the "right time" to organize an international conference on Kosovo. In an interview with Kosovo Online on the occasion of the 26th anniversary of NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia, Troude also warned about the concerning situation of the Serbian and other minority communities in Kosovo.

"The world, 26 years after the bombing of Yugoslavia, is becoming aware that international rules must be negotiated and that this must be done within international institution. Not in NATO, but in the United Nations. That is why this is a good moment to organize an international conference, perhaps on Kosovo, and return the negotiations to the UN framework, which remains the most important instrument in international politics," Troude emphasized.

Commenting on the anniversary of NATO’s 1999 intervention, the professor noted that even among Serbs, there is a feeling that the event has been forgotten.

"The three months of bombing, from March 24 to June 8, 1999, led to real changes in international relations. Since then, Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China have maintained that it was a mistake to interfere in the internal affairs of a sovereign country," Troude said.

He emphasizes that the intervention against Yugoslavia in 1999 was not only outside the framework of the United Nations but also beyond NATO’s own jurisdiction.

"According to NATO’s Article 5, the bombing was illegitimate," Troude stressed.

He describes the events of 1999 as "the lowest point in international relations."

"It was rock bottom. I hope there is an awareness that this bombing was the beginning of the end. It enabled Putin to impose his positions globally and allowed the Americans to exert pressure not only in the Balkans but also in Iraq and Iran," Troude assessed.

The complex situation of Serbs

Troude described the position of the Serbian community in Kosovo as "very difficult and complicated."

"The situation of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija is extremely, extremely difficult. They live in enclaves, completely isolated from the rest of the world. When children and mothers have to go to school or daycare, they must use armored NATO vehicles. They face pressure and have very limited political rights. They have the Serb List, which has been demonized by Kurti. Kurti has also managed to reduce their local autonomy, appointing Albanian mayors in Serbian municipalities after Serbs boycotted the elections," Troude explained.

He also describes the security of Serbs and other minority communities as fragile.

"The situation of Serbs in Kosovo is very precarious. They make up less than ten percent, only about seven percent, of the population, but they still number over 90,000 people. Their lives are extremely complicated, politically, socially, and in every aspect," he added.

Troude believes that the position of minority communities can only improve with greater pressure from major powers on the authorities in Pristina.

"The rights of minorities in Kosovo, Serbs, but also Gorani, Turks, and Roma, cannot improve as long as the current government in Pristina, led by Kurti, remains unchecked and unrestricted. There needs to be international pressure. The EU has tried, but it is too weak, too divided, and has limited influence. I am thinking primarily of greater powers, the US or Turkey, but also Russia and China. Actions by major powers could improve the situation," he specified.

A "symbiosis" between the US and Russia

The professor believes that a new US administration could find a solution for Kosovo, and he expects a similar level of engagement from Russia.

"The new majority in the US could initiate significant action, especially considering that President Trump intends to appoint a member of the Serbian diaspora as ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Trump’s administration will also replace all special envoys. I believe that in the coming months and years, the US could play an important role in exerting pressure on Kurti. But Russia, too, after reaching an agreement on Ukraine, could once again become a key player in Kosovo. It is well known that Russia has always supported Serbia’s position in the UN, insisting on Resolution 1244, which affirms that Kosovo and Metohija is part of Serbia," Troude explained.

He believes Russia could advocate this position in "symbiosis" with the US.

"If UN Security Council Resolution 1244 were enforced, Serbs in Kosovo would regain their rights, including political representation in parliament. They would also regain social rights, such as pensions and social assistance, meaning they could once again receive financial support from Belgrade," the historian asserted.

France's position

When asked whether France could take on a greater role in the Western Balkans and the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, Troude argued that the country is in political crisis and has long abandoned the Balkans.

"France is in a deep political crisis, with a minority government. It lacks legitimacy. But France abandoned the Balkans a long time ago. I remember when the French ambassador in Belgrade, Frederic Mondoloni, told me that we lost 20 years because we neglected the Balkans for so long. I do not see France playing an important role in the Balkans. But Germany will," Troude emphasized.

He explains that despite its economic crisis, Germany has a strong coalition that will likely remain in power after the elections, making it realistic to expect greater German activity in foreign policy, particularly in pushing Albin Kurti toward a more balanced approach.

"Germany will be able to send special envoys. The SPD-CDU coalition can put pressure on Kurti to return to a more balanced policy and restore the rights of Serbs. I believe Germany could adopt a policy favorable to Serbs. The only problem is the UK, which armed the KLA and continues to foster division in the Balkans. It would be beneficial for the Serbs in Kosovo if Trump limited Britain's influence. However, if the UK continues its current policy, even Germany will not be able to stop it. Everything depends on the coming months," Troude assessed.

The military agreement

When asked how to interpret the trilateral memorandum on defense cooperation between Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo, Troude believes that it would not contribute to resolving the Kosovo issue.

"There have been many military agreements in the past, such as the Minsk Agreement and the one in Ireland, that were never implemented. I do not believe these military agreements will amount to much. I return to the diplomatic path: the Kosovo issue will be resolved through the diplomatic actions of major powers, not the EU, but the US, Russia, China, or Germany," Professor Alexis Troude of the University of Versailles concluded.