Secessionism in the Philippines orchestrated by the former president

Writing for Kosovo Online: Dragan Bisenic

Secessionism in continental states is a common occurrence, but now secessionism is emerging in the archipelago. The Philippines are facing the possibility of the secession of the second-largest island, Mindanao, following the recent call by former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Duterte called for the independence of his native island of Mindanao in the southern Philippines on January 30 after his alliance with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. fell apart last week due to disagreements over constitutional change efforts. This is just one of many reasons for such a move in a country consisting of 7,500 islands with 120 million inhabitants. Rodrigo Duterte was the first Philippine President elected from this island.

Mindanao is the second-largest island in the Philippine archipelago, after Luzon, and the seventh most populous island in the world. Located in the southern part of the archipelago, the island is part of the eponymous island group, which also includes neighboring islands, especially the Sulu Archipelago. According to the 2020 census, Mindanao has 27 million inhabitants, while the entire island group has one million more inhabitants.

About 70 percent of the population are Christians, and 25 percent are Muslims. Mindanao is very rich in resources. Although considered the country's main granary, Mindanao has been plagued by violence and conflicts for decades as the government fought rebels and extremists. Unrest has discouraged investment and left many parts of the island in poverty. As a result, migration to wealthy Gulf countries is a common practice, where Filipinos work in physical and other low-paying jobs.

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte accused his successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., of being a drug addict and risking being ousted from office in a tirade full of profanity that demonstrated a breakdown in relations between two powerful political families.

Duterte's speech, in which he claimed that allies of Marcos Jr. were trying to remove constitutional term limits to cling to power, follows long-standing speculation about hostilities between the families.

The return of Marcos to power was partially aided by Duterte's family as the two dynasties built an alliance ahead of the 2022 presidential elections. The current president is the son of the ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who ruled from 1965 to 1986 and imposed martial law that weakened the economy and public institutions, and his wife, Imelda Marcos, who became famous worldwide for her collection of 3,000 pairs of shoes. Meanwhile, the Marcos administration launched its Bagong Pilipinas (New Philippines) campaign, highlighting the growing discord between these two powerful Filipino families. The event revived a kind of political movement of his father, Ferdinand, Bagong Lipunan (New Society).

Marcos's father, Ferdinand Marcos Sr., ruled the Philippines for more than two decades until he was ousted by the peaceful "People Power Revolution" in February 1986. The Marcos family was forced to flee the country and sought exile in Hawaii. The 1987 constitution, which came into effect a year after Marcos Sr. was ousted, stipulates that presidents can serve only one six-year term, as a safeguard against dictatorship.

The Dutertes gained power in Davao, their stronghold in the south, ruling the city with an iron fist for two decades. Open conflict erupted after the eldest son of former president Duterte, Paolo, faced scrutiny over extravagant public spending. Tensions escalated at separate gatherings at the end of January.

Duterte's daughter, Sara Duterte, ran on a joint list with Marcos Jr. in the 2022 elections, winning convincingly, and is now his vice president. However, cracks have since appeared in their alliance. During his speech, Duterte warned Marcos Jr. not to make any changes to the constitution, cautioning that he could be ousted like his father.

Marcos Jr. supported constitutional changes, explaining that it would allow for the promotion of foreign investment. However, Duterte claimed that the president's allies were bribing local officials to remove term limit rules.

Duterte also repeatedly accused Marcos Jr., known as Bongbong, of drug use, stating: "Bongbong Marcos was high then. Now that he is president, he is still high... We have a drug addict for president! That son of a bitch," the former president cursed, as reported by the Filipino press.

Duterte said that Marcos Jr.'s name was included on a list compiled by the Philippine drug enforcement agency. The agency denied this.

Duterte, who was constitutionally barred from seeking a second term in 2022, has always had an uneasy relationship with Marcos Jr. and had previously called him a "spoiled brat and a weak leader". He did not endorse him in the previous elections and openly expressed frustration that his daughter did not run for the country's top position.

There are widespread speculations that Sara Duterte will join the presidential race in 2028, which would further deepen the conflict between the two families.

On Monday, Marcos Jr. told reporters, "I think that's fentanyl", when asked about Duterte's remarks, suggesting that the drug - which Duterte admitted to using in the past for pain relief after a motorcycle accident - had affected his judgment. He added that the former president "has been taking drugs for a long time... after five, six years, it must affect him".

Misunderstandings are the result of long-standing disputes over discretionary funds and disagreements over political plans.

Duterte's son and the mayor of Davao City joined his father in calling for the resignation of Marcos Jr., suggesting that he was pursuing a dangerous foreign policy and was responsible for the growing crime. "Mr. President, if you have no love and aspirations for your country, resign," he said at a public forum.

Sara Duterte said on Monday that her brother's comments stemmed from "a place of brotherly love" and cited that she had been subjected to "disgusting treatment" by "some sectors within the president's circle". There is a widespread belief that the conflict began because of her when the president's administration reduced the confidential budget of Vice President Sara Duterte. This followed last year's media reports detailing her spending of around $2.2 million in just 11 days of her term.

Confidential funds - lump sums that government agencies can spend without official oversight - were the focus of a parliamentary inquiry in late 2023, and Congress demanded an explanation of their use. House Speaker Martin Romualdez, a close ally and relative of Marcos, denied that he initiated the investigation for political purposes.

Tensions escalated when confidential funds were completely removed from Duterte's daughter's budget for 2024, while Marcos' discretionary funds remained untouched. Nevertheless, Duterte publicly affirmed his support for Marcos' administration.

However, the funds are just one of the "first breaking points" of the dynastic alliance. Unlike Duterte, who had close ties with China, Marcos Jr. pursued a dramatically different foreign policy from Duterte, taking a tougher stance against China in the disputed South China Sea and strengthening ties with the US. Marcos has involved the Philippines in an alliance with the United States and strengthened a strategic partnership with Japan.

Recent key events in security cooperation include granting the US access to four additional military bases in the Philippines, as well as conducting the largest military exercises together with the US.

Marcos Jr. has gone much further than any regional leader — even US officials — in congratulating the victorious Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan. His statement was far stronger than statements from other Southeast Asian countries with close informal ties to Taiwan, such as Singapore. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters that Marcos's remarks "seriously violated the political commitments the Philippines made to China and grossly interfered in China's internal affairs". Marcos Jr. later attempted to backtrack, issuing a statement reaffirming his commitment to the "One China" policy.

Duterte's sharp attack followed immediately after this move by his successor, directly citing foreign policy as one of the key points of contention. Relations between the families are also strained due to reports that investigators from the International Criminal Court, probing Duterte's brutal crackdown on drug cartels, visited the Philippines in December. The reports have not been confirmed, and Marcos Jr. has stated that he will not cooperate with the court. Representative Raoul Manuel in the House of Representatives stated that Duterte might be seeking for Mindanao to secede from the country to stay out of the reach of the International Criminal Court. The proposal for Mindanao's secession carries a "hidden agenda" in light of the ICC investigation, Manuel said.

"In fact, Duterte's only aim is to turn Mindanao into a bunker for escape when the ICC hunts them down, because as the investigation progresses and they are convicted for their crimes against the Filipinos," Manuel said.

The International Criminal Court in 2023 approved the continuation of the investigation into Duterte's so-called "war on drugs" during his presidency and earlier, as the mayor of Davao City.

Numerous officials have dismissed and condemned the former president's statements and calls for the secession of Mindanao. The National Security Council (NSC) rejected Duterte's statement on secession, saying it represented a threat to progress in peace and development.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro pledged to "strictly enforce" the preservation of the country's sovereignty. Teodoro's comments were echoed in a similar tone by the national security adviser, who said the government would not hesitate to "use its authority and forces to suppress and halt any attempts to fragment the Republic".

"The government will meet any attempt to secede any part of the Philippines with decisive force, as it remains steadfast in ensuring the sovereignty and integrity of the national territory," the national security adviser Eduardo Anjos said.

Despite the current animosity, political loyalties are believed to potentially shift ahead of the midterm elections in 2025, thereby reducing secessionist rhetoric. These elections are crucial for Marcos to fill Congress with lawmakers from his party to ensure the adoption of policies he favors. Former President Duterte won a large majority of lawmakers in the midterm of 2019, effectively crippling his political opposition.

There is a chance that Duterte-Marcos unity could be reaffirmed or that a significant divide could be solidified between at least three camps: the old liberal opposition, Duterte’s consolidating opposition positions, and Marcos's camp. This would mean Duterte could strengthen his secessionist plans.

The conflicts demonstrate how political alliances in the Philippines are usually short-lived, often emerging only for politicians to consolidate support ahead of elections. Political dynasties, with all their money, influence, and basic support, wield power in shaping who will become the president.