Gogic: The latest round of dialogue unexpectedly ended on a positive note

Political scientist Ognjen Gogic points out that the latest round of dialogue in Brussels exceeded expectations, as an agreement was reached for the sides to continue working together on determining the fate of missing persons. He notes that the dialogue has been stagnating or regressing for a long time, and no one expected that the last meeting within the mandate of the EU Special Envoy for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, Miroslav Lajcak, would end on a positive note.

"It could ironically be said that the dialogue even exceeded expectations because no one had any expectations for this conversation, yet it ended on a positive note with the acknowledgment that there is agreement to continue working on determining the fate of the missing persons. Although this is an issue that has been dragging through the dialogue for a long time without results, it is still positive that it ended this way, with some agreement and consensus reached between the sides," Gogic told Kosovo Online.

He explains that yesterday's meeting in Brussels primarily served to conclude Lajcak's mandate.

He observes that the dialogue was scheduled when numerous meetings were taking place in Brussels and it was necessary to show that the process is "alive."

"There are these EU Council meetings in various forms, but there is also the European Council meeting. They all actually deal with the issue of enlargement. In addition, there is the EU-Western Balkans Summit. It was really necessary to show that this dialogue has not completely stalled and that this format is alive, at least to adopt declarations and new documents in which it would be noted that progress is being made in some direction. Aside from that, no one had any other expectations, so unlike past talks when we could say it was a complete failure, here we recorded some minimal progress," Gogic pointed out.

He remarks that the dialogue had a certain dynamic from 2011 to 2016, after which stagnation and the collapse of agreements followed.

Today, he says, the dialogue in Brussels cannot be considered a framework that yields results.

"The dialogue had a certain trajectory from 2011 to 2016. After that, we entered a period of stagnation or the collapse of agreements, with only occasional, sporadic results. So, we are actually talking about a process that is in a prolonged standstill and is starting to collapse, so this Brussels dialogue format can no longer be seen as a framework that produces results," Gogic stated.

He assesses that the dialogue has entered a phase of decadence, where it is necessary to think about its complete reform.

However, as he adds, there is no political will for that, especially in the EU, which at this moment has much more significant global issues to address.

Speaking about the expiration of Lajcak's mandate in about a month, Gogic notes that the special envoy surprised many with his longevity. He emphasizes that it cannot be ruled out that he will remain involved in the dialogue, as the EU still has no clear stance on whether the dialogue will be led by Kaja Kallas as the High Representative or if they will appoint their own representative.

"Lajcak actually won't be able to praise much about his work because he inherited the dialogue at a level that not only wasn't improved and didn't produce results but actually collapsed. So, in a way, it starts from scratch, and 'stains' need to be 'washed' and the damage repaired, whoever takes over the dialogue in the coming period," Gogic believes.

For Lajcak, he says, it is extremely important that he finished the conversation on a positive note, allowing the EU Council and European Council to focus on enlargement and the accession policy, with the acknowledgment that the dialogue made some progress in the end.

"For Lajcak, the only relevant thing is that the EU Council for General Affairs has now adopted conclusions on enlargement, where some progress will be noted, and this creates conditions for Serbia and Kosovo to continue their European path," Gogic concluded.