Close cooperation with China as a pledge of support on the issue of Kosovo

By signing several agreements in Beijing during the third "Belt and Road" Forum, including a free trade agreement, Serbia and China, who have had a strategic partnership for seven years, will further strengthen their relationship. The "iron friendship", as the relations between Belgrade and Beijing are often described, and that, as interlocutors of Kosovo Online believe, has so far implied China's support for Serbia on the Kosovo issue, which should not be questioned even when the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue reaches its conclusion and when discussions on a final solution take place.

According to our interlocutors, China will support everything that Belgrade and Pristina agree upon within the framework of the dialogue, and will respect Belgrade's position in case Kosovo attempts to gain admission to the United Nations.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic stated today in Beijing that he had had an exceptionally friendly discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping on all important topics, including Kosovo. He also found understanding in Xi on the Kosovo issue. He added that they had discussed the respect for international legal norms, what Serbia was going through, and the application of double standards, the violation of the UN Charter and Resolution 1244.

Chinese officials have repeatedly emphasized that China respected Serbia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, just as Belgrade supported a One China principle.

Speaking about Chinese investments in Serbia and the political relationship between the two countries, Sanja Arezina, an international relations expert and author of the book "China in Europe", tells Kosovo Online that through these investments, China shows great trust in its Serbian partners, as "it is not a small matter to invest $4.2 billion in a country".

“Following this logic, it is essential for Beijing to protect all these investments. To achieve this, a safe environment is necessary, both in Serbia itself and in the entire region. In this context, the question of Kosovo and its unilateral declaration of independence in 2008 is highly significant. We can expect that China will continue to support Serbia in the near future. Still, at the same time, we must always keep in mind that all major powers, including China, primarily look out for their own interests,“ Arezina says.

Our interviewee believes that China will undoubtedly provide support for everything that Belgrade and Pristina agree upon within the dialogue.

"The EU negotiating framework speaks of a final solution that should be a legally binding agreement, but at this moment, we cannot accurately assess when such a solution might be reached. Speaking on this topic is quite precarious, but when it comes to the dialogue and reaching a solution, President Vucic himself, based on the EU proposal from February and the implementation annex from March, stated that Serbia was ready to adhere to clearly defined red lines. These red lines pertain to the fact that Serbia will never recognize the independence of the so-called Kosovo and will not allow Kosovo to enter the UN. As for China and their support in this matter, we are already receiving significant assistance from them. We saw, after the crisis that escalated in May, that the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in support of Serbia's territorial integrity and sovereignty, advocating for a solution between the two parties in line with their agreement. Following this logic, we cannot expect significant involvement in our country's internal affairs from China because they advocate for non-interference in the internal affairs of other states. However, they will undoubtedly support everything that Belgrade and Pristina agree upon within the dialogue,“ Arezina says.

As she adds, we are all aware that great powers often primarily protect their national interests in international settings, and the interests of smaller states are of lesser importance.

"However, China has so far proven to be a good and grateful friend who steadfastly stands by the lines of that friendship. In that sense, everything that will happen in the future, and potentially within the United Nations, will represent a kind of agreement between Belgrade and Beijing," Arezina says.

If a final proposal for the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina were to reach the UN Security Council, which Serbia would not be satisfied with, it is difficult to predict whether China would exercise its veto right within that body. Arezina says that within its interests, China has its key interests, also called core interests, and she notes that it is very indicative that only when these interests are at stake, does China use its veto in the United Nations.

"If a final solution is reached under pressure from various international factors and is unfavorable to Serbia, China will react within the UN Security Council with respect to how that solution aligns with its national interests," Arezina says.

Our interlocutor reminds us that Serbia and China have a traditional friendship dating back to the visit of President Tito to China, during which both party and state relations were established between China and Yugoslavia.

"Since the dissolution of Yugoslavia, Serbia and China have maintained very good relations, which were particularly deepened in 2009 when China became Serbia's fourth pillar of foreign policy. Subsequently, there has been a noticeable influx of various Chinese investments and the provision of preferential loans for the implementation of numerous projects. Within the framework of China's cooperation mechanism with Central and Eastern European countries, Serbia has emerged as a significant partner. When this mechanism was integrated into the Belt and Road Initiative, Serbia and China continued to build their relationship on an upward trajectory, especially in 2016 when a comprehensive strategic partnership was signed between the two countries. Within the relationship between the two countries, we must emphasize the strong political ties, where they support each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Serbia supports China's One China principle, and, in turn, we receive significant assistance from China regarding the preservation of Kosovo within Serbia's borders. In this regard, Serbia collaborates with Chinese partners within various international organizations and on a bilateral level," Arezina concludes.

Program Coordinator of the BFPE Foundation, Stefan Vladisavljev, assesses for Kosovo Online that China's collaboration with Serbia and the strengthening of economic relations are crucial, but he adds that political cooperation is equally important. He believes that China will even respect Belgrade's position in sensitive situations, such as Kosovo's attempt to join the United Nations.

"There are several different forms of economic cooperation between Serbia and China. First and foremost, these were infrastructure projects for which Serbia primarily took loans from Chinese banks and engaged Chinese companies. The second form is direct investments. Some of the direct investments we witnessed include the purchase of the Smederevo steel plant, the Bor mining complex, and the construction of an automotive tire factory in Zrenjanin. The third form is trade and cooperation, where China has become the second-largest trading partner of the Republic of Serbia. Further improvement of relations is expected through the signing of a free trade agreement," Vladisavljev says.

He emphasizes that political cooperation is also vital alongside the high level of economic cooperation.

"Besides economic cooperation, what has always been evident are certain political alignments on important issues for both Serbia and China. Primarily, it involves China's stance that emphasizes the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Serbia. On the other hand, Serbia's support for China's policy that considers all disputed territories under China's central administration from Beijing as a part of integral China. When we take these two aspects of cooperation into account, the alignment of both sides on these issues is evident. If we consider a hypothetical scenario in which the question of Kosovo's UN membership is brought before the UN Security Council or the UN General Assembly, we can expect alignment on that issue as well," Vladisavljev believes.

He reminds that China also faces challenges regarding its territorial sovereignty.

"We first need to consider two important aspects: first, what the result of the dialogue process between Belgrade and Pristina will be, specifically Belgrade's position on the question of Kosovo's membership in international organizations. The second is China's position regarding the principle of territorial integrity at that moment. When we talk about China's position, I firmly believe that it will not change, not because of the Serbia-Kosovo situation, but because China has its own challenges regarding territorial sovereignty, and I don't think that situation will change," our interlocutor says.

According to Vladisavljev, China's position would primarily be defined by Serbia's stance on the issue of potential Kosovo membership in international organizations, precisely because of the ongoing development of relations between Serbia and China.

"China will act according to what Serbia assesses to be the best case at that moment, not because Serbia can impose anything on China but because China has a principle of respecting the views of states and parties in specific relations in line with the respect for international law," Vladisavljev says.

Commenting on the current visit of the Serbian delegation to China within the framework of the third Belt and Road Forum, Arezina points out that the visit by President Aleksandar Vucic to China is very important for Serbia and China. Serbia has been China's traditional partner, and since 2016, they have had a comprehensive strategic partnership.

"The free trade agreement should primarily lead to the abolition of customs duties and, perhaps even more importantly, non-tariff barriers with China, such as various quotas, labels, packaging... that China imposes on all its trading partners. At the same time, we expect a significant influx of Chinese investments in Serbia, as well as for Serbia to become a kind of hub, or a junction for various investments coming from the region to Serbia, which will continue their journey to China. Thanks to this agreement, Serbia can expect its budget to be indirectly replenished in the medium and long term, and at the same time, cheaper products from China will reach us, which will suit both citizens and the economy, making it more competitive," Arezina says.