What is the path for Serbia to become a member of the Security Council and what would this position mean for it?

Although non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council have a two-year mandate and do not have the right of veto, which is a privilege reserved only for the five permanent members, being on the East River as part of the "world government" is a matter of prestige and a position from which one's own interests can be represented in a much more visible manner for every country. Therefore, it is not surprising that experts in international relations welcome the announcement of the possibility for Serbia to run for a non-permanent member of the Security Council.

To be able to enter this race, Belgrade has recently hinted at by President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučic, linking the decision to the outcome of the voting in the UN General Assembly on the resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica. Vučic also assessed that if Serbia were to submit a candidacy, it would convincingly defeat two NATO countries from Eastern Europe that have already announced their candidacies.

From the declaration of candidacy for a seat in the UN Security Council to the actual election, the road is long and requires a lot of diplomatic effort, starting from the region to which a country belongs, to the secret balloting in the UN General Assembly where it is necessary to secure two-thirds of the votes. The General Assembly, in fact, elects five new non-permanent members each year according to a geographical pattern, so that five are from African and Asian countries, one from Eastern European countries, two from Latin America, and two from the group of Western European and other countries. The current non-permanent ten include - Algeria, Ecuador, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, and Switzerland.

More than 50 UN member states, including Serbia, have never been members of the Security Council, and if Serbia were to nominate itself, Acting Prime Minister of Serbia and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivica Dačic is confident that it would be elected and have better chances than other candidates.

"It's still early to talk about it, but in any case, we have a large number of friends in the UN, and I am sure we will succeed if we nominate ourselves," Dačic says for Kosovo Online.

This position would certainly mean a lot to Serbia, as it would strengthen its international position, but it emphasizes that the decision on a potential candidacy will be made after the vote in the UN General Assembly on the resolution on Srebrenica.

According to a long-term plan that was made several years ago, it was envisaged that Serbia would nominate itself in the next decade, but the situation may change.

Former ambassador Srecko Djukic tells Kosovo Online that the position of a non-permanent member of the Security Council carries special weight in international relations, that there is a great struggle for it, and it is not so easy to obtain.

"Whether a member of the Security Council or not, Serbia cannot push through something in the Security Council that is not accepted by the great powers with the right of veto or something where it cannot secure a majority, but the fact that Serbian diplomacy has become significant and carries weight is precisely guaranteed by membership in the Security Council. This is the most prominent achievement a country can secure for itself, and that's why the competition for this position is extremely fierce," Djukic points out.

As he explains, Serbia belongs to the Eastern European group of countries that choose their representative, which extends from the Baltic States to the Black and Aegean Seas.

"It is a very large group, and there are countries with different geopolitical positions. The choice depends on how many countries you can win over in that group, and then it goes to the UN General Assembly, so no one can guarantee in advance whether we will receive support, especially since in our group, there are many countries that are almost all EU or NATO members, and it is natural that solidarity among them is greater than with countries that are not members of these international organizations," Djukic evaluates.

Regarding Serbia's chances of being elected, he says that nuances would probably decide, and it all depends on who else will nominate themselves.

"In addition to Serbia, among the former Yugoslav republics, North Macedonia and Montenegro have not yet been in the UN Security Council. I don't know if they will nominate themselves, but among these three former Yugoslav republics, an agreement can be reached not to go against each other, but for one to opt-out, and then in the next turn, the other. This would be the first clearing of the field, then to win over the former Yugoslav republics, then the EU and our group in which we are elected. This requires a lot of patience, diplomatic work, and of course, we should appeal to all the countries that we have supported so far in the election for non-permanent members of the Security Council. It would be presumptuous if we were to say now that our chances are absolute or we have no chance. No, let's start with 'fifty-fifty', and let nuances decide," says Djukic.

He notes that the former Yugoslavia was a non-permanent member of the Security Council four or five times in 45 years, while the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro, and then Serbia were never members.

Considering that Albania was a non-permanent member of the Security Council for the first time on behalf of the Eastern European countries in 2022-2023, Djukic says that it has affirmed itself, its position, and its entire people.

"We supported Albania's membership in the Security Council. It was a principled stance and I think it was a good one. In principle, when supporting a member in such a delicate body, one starts from the neighborhood and then goes further, so it was normal to support Albania. I think that since then, relations between Serbia and Albania have progressed, along with, of course, a principled difference and disagreement on the key issue - the issue of Kosovo. What Albania has done for the region, itself, and the international community from that position is difficult to measure. It is important to participate constructively in international affairs," our interlocutor notes.

Former Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to Germany Zoran Jeremic also considers it very significant if Serbia were to nominate itself and be elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. He tells Kosovo Online that from that position, a country's interests can be presented much better and the interests of others can also be controlled.

"That is a place where you can listen to what is happening and influence the realization of your interests in a specific, good way. We should have tried with a candidacy earlier, but it is never too late for a good thing. When you are in the Security Council, agreements with other countries about their and your interests are possible because it is a marketplace of interests, and it is always better to participate than to be the subject of that international trade," says Jeremic.

He points out that it is customary for candidacies for this position to be announced a year or two in advance, during which lobbying is done, but it's all part of a trade.

"If we were a member of the Security Council now, we would be in a different position regarding the resolution on Srebrenica that is being prepared, if for nothing else, then at least in relation to the countries sponsoring that resolution, such as Germany or Croatia, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. We would have received signals much earlier that something like this was brewing, and we would have been able to channel it in a direction that is possible," says Jeremic.

The situation, he emphasizes, would probably have looked different if Serbia had been in the Security Council when the holding of a session to mark the 25th anniversary of the NATO aggression against Serbia was initiated and rejected.

If Serbia formalizes its candidacy, according to retired diplomat Zoran Milivojevic, it will primarily need the consent of the region, and if it secures support there, as he believes, it would pass without any problems on the global stage, as it is supported by 80 percent or more of humanity, including beyond the West.

He sees Serbia's advantage in never having been a non-permanent member of the Security Council, and the advantage, he says, can also be that it is not a full member of NATO and is militarily neutral.

"Now, things are different in the region as well. You have Hungary, which is a NATO member but supports Serbia, so that's one more vote for us from the Western bloc and one less vote for the competition. Support is always an open question, for example, how Greece or another country would behave, Slovakia, for example, which is in completely different circumstances with a different kind of policy. Also, the question is what the balance of power will be after the European Parliament and EU elections. Support from outside the region is also important. It is possible that the French and Italians will speak out in our favor over another candidate. Nothing is excluded. And in the end, the position of Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, cannot be ignored. It doesn't matter whether it's in the majority or minority, but its voice is relevant. The question is how Turkey would behave, with which we have some good relations. So, everything is in play, it's just important to start the action," Milivojevic says for Kosovo Online.

He adds that the Eastern European region is on the agenda to fill one non-permanent seat in the Security Council in the even years, so in 2026, and he believes that there is enough time for lobbying.

Being a non-permanent member of the Security Council would, he adds, give Serbia the opportunity to directly renew relations with countries that understand its position, to strengthen bilateral relations with a range of countries, and to give itself maneuvering space in global issues and relations, which would serve its state and national interests.

"Since Kosovo and Metohija are a daily topic in the Security Council and eventually it will be decided there one way or another, because it cannot be decided outside of Resolution 1244, whether it is repealed, whether another is adopted, or whether Serbia changes its stance. In any case, from the position in the Security Council, it is certainly a much greater advantage for Serbia to act on that issue than it is now at this moment," Milivojevic emphasizes.