Dostanic: Merz will likely form a coalition with the Social Democrats, no changes expected in policy toward our region

Dusan Dostanic from the Institute for Political Studies told Kosovo Online that Friedrich Merz, whose CDU won the elections in Germany, will most likely have to enter into a coalition with Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), despite the SPD achieving its worst electoral result yesterday. However, when it comes to Serbia and the wider region, no significant changes should be expected from this coalition.

"I don’t think there will be any major shifts, primarily because neither party spoke about any such shifts during the election campaign. The campaign revolved around other issues, and topics like Kosovo and the Western Balkans were not in focus. Merz has not made many statements about this region, so it’s difficult to determine his stance based on past remarks," said Dostanic.

However, he added that much of what Merz has said aligns with the CDU's general policies to date, making it unlikely that any major policy shifts regarding the Balkans will occur.

Dostanic also pointed out that the Social Democrats have not received such a low number of votes in the past hundred years. However, due to the CDU's refusal to enter a coalition with the second-placed AfD, the SPD—despite losing voter confidence—cannot be removed from power, which, according to Dostanic, is an interesting development.

Regarding the future of EU relations under Merz as German chancellor and his potential rivalry with French President Emmanuel Macron, Dostanic noted that neither Germany nor France is in the best internal political shape.

"Merz will have a coalition partner that is so unpopular it just recorded its worst-ever election result, while on the other hand, the French government is also unstable—one government already collapsed last year."

He added that Germany and France are usually seen as the driving forces of the European Union, or at least as key to its future. However, given their internal political situations, neither is in an ideal position at the moment.

"EU relations were not a dominant topic in the German elections. The elections took place in the shadow of several terrorist attacks in Germany, which were directly linked to issues such as uncontrolled migration since 2015. As a result, voter priorities were domestic security, migration, and identity issues. When fundamental concerns include whether you can safely walk down the street without being stabbed by an illegal migrant whose asylum request was denied and who has no legal right to be in the country—alongside economic and social issues—then relations with France and what happens in Brussels naturally take a backseat," Dostanic concluded.